|
Date |
Report |
Title |
|
December 29,
2006 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
December 22,
2006 |
Investment
Focus |
How
Valuation Can Mitigate Otherwise Warranted Bearishness
Historically, an inverted Treasury yield curve (which we’ve
had since last July) has spelled trouble for the year-ahead
performance of U.S. equities and the U.S. economic growth
rate. But while we now expect... |
|
December 15,
2006 |
Investment
Focus |
Is the
Housing Sector Predictive?
As we expected, the U.S. residential housing sector
performed badly this year. Whether we consult the data on
new home construction permits, housing starts, old and new
home sales, median house prices, real residential investment
spending or the performance of homebuilder stocks relative
to the S&P 500, we find that the news this year has been
uniformly grim. But does the housing sector’s performance
over the past year have any predictive value? |
|
December 7,
2006 |
Investor
Alert |
The
Recession of 2007
The last U.S. recession occurred in 2001, after Fed rate
hikes inverted the Treasury yield curve... |
|
November 22,
2006 |
Investment
Focus |
Does
'Sideline Cash' Predict U.S. Equities?
Today's equity bulls, no doubt
heartened by the recent rally in stock prices, continue to
offer various theories in support of a bullish stance. One
is the so-called “sideline cash” theory... |
|
November 8,
2006 |
Investor
Alert |
How Punitive Fed Policy Can Trump the Benefits of Divided
Government
Many people (usually the advocates of government activism)
decry “gridlock,” but all else equal, over the past fifty
years, divided government in Washington has been a positive
thing for investors. |
|
October 29,
2006 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
October 16,
2006 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
Betting Markets Say GOP Will Lose the House
As we’ve seen in past U.S. elections, betting markets –
where people put there own money on the line – tend to be
much more accurate than opinion polls when it comes to
forecasting results |
|
October 11,
2006 |
Investor
Alert |
North Korea's Nukes and the Market’s Rally
The Bush Administration this week lost any remaining
credibility in foreign policy. |
|
September 29,
2006 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
September 21,
2006 |
Investor
Alert |
The Policy Mix Index:
Yield-Curve Inversion Signals Trouble
IFI’s Policy Mix Index (PMI) – a weighted grading system
assessing monetary policy, fiscal policy, trade policy,
regulatory policy and foreign policy – has declined to -15.0
(Table One, page 2), versus readings of ... |
|
September 11,
2006 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
Why America
Can't Win Wars Anymore
Over the past five years we’ve observed something even
more horrific than what we witnessed five years ago today,
when Islamic terrorists sponsored by Islamic regimes in the
Middle East murdered 3,000 innocents by using three
commercial airplanes to destroy the World Trade Center and
part of the Pentagon. Why more horrific? |
|
August 31,
2006 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
August 21,
2006 |
Investor
Alert |
Rationalizing Recession
Few analysts at the time saw recession as likely in the
foreseeable future and none would dare say (publicly) that
the Fed might deliberately trash the economy, since most
believe the Fed always knows (and does) best. |
|
August 14,
2006 |
Investor
Alert |
Two
Cease-Fires -- Neither of Which is Bullish
In the past week investors have had to assess the likely
market impact of two “cease-fires.” |
|
August 7,
2006 |
Investment
Focus |
Predicting U.S. Equities:
Interest Rates Matter More than Earnings
When it comes to forecasting U.S. equity performance, most
analysts, strategists and economists focus on two key
variables: earnings and interest rates... |
|
July 28,
2006 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
Reflections on a Quarter-Century in Business
I walked forty blocks south, from my tiny apartment on
Manhattan’s upper east side to my first professional job as
a management trainee for Manufacturers Hanover Trust Company
at 350 Park Avenue. |
|
July 14,
2006 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
Israel
Fights Back, But the U.S. Keeps Appeasing
No investor can afford to ignore geo-political trends,
especially those that destroy portfolios. |
|
July 7, 2006 |
Investment
Focus |
Forecasting Shifts in U.S.
Corporate Profit Margins
As we enter the latest U.S. “earnings season” (with
corporate reports of second-quarter results, through June
30th) and see new estimates of year-ahead profit
performance, investors should be aware that |
|
June 30,
2006 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
June 21,
2006 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
Bill
Gates: Triumph and Tragedy
Microsoft’s co-founder and chairman Bill Gates announced
last week that as of July 2008 he’ll no longer work
full-time at the firm; thereafter he’ll devote most of his
time (and wealth) to a philanthropic foundation he
established in 2000. As he’s been doing in recent years,
Gates will shift further away from creating wealth toward
giving it away. |
|
June 13,
2006 |
Investor
Alert |
Technical
Fouls – by Bulls in Denial
Stock bulls are in denial about the Fed’s blatant sabotage. |
|
June 7,
2006 |
Investment
Focus |
Forecasting Commodities
How can investors best forecast and profit from forthcoming
changes in commodity prices? |
|
May 31,
2006 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
Paulson
and the Dollar
Earlier this month we showed why a potential cessation
of further Fed rate hiking later this year won’t necessarily
be... |
|
May 25,
2006 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
May 15,
2006 |
Investor
Alert |
The
Beginning of the End
The bull market in U.S. equities was nice while it lasted –
but our market-based signals indicate that it’s coming to an
end – if, indeed, it hasn’t ended already. |
|
April 28,
2006 |
Investment
Focus |
Anticipating Shifts in T-Bill Rates, T-Bond Yields and the
Yield-Curve Spread
This study shows how a set of
forward-looking market prices forecasts (one-year ahead)
T-Bill rates, T-Bond yields and the Treasury yield-curve
spread (defined as the difference between T-Bond yields and
T-Bill rates, as reflected in the shape of the yield curve,
whether it be steep, flat or inverted). |
|
April 25,
2006 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
April 14,
2006 |
Investment
Focus |
Forecasting Fed Rate Moves
This study illustrates how a
set of important, forward-looking market prices reliably
forecasts (one-year ahead) Federal Reserve policy -- which
basically entails shifts in the overnight Fed Funds rate. |
|
April 7,
2006 |
Investment
Focus |
Predicting U.S. Sector Performance
This report shows how a set of
five important, forward-looking market prices forecast
absolute and relative stock performance by the ten main U.S.
sectors. |
|
March 31,
2006 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
March 28,
2006 |
Investor
Alert |
The Long
and Short of U.S. Interest-Rate Shifts
Today’s rate hike by the Fed -- it's fifteenth since
June 2004 and one that brings the overnight Fed Funds rate
up to 4.75% -- has now definitively inverted the U.S.
Treasury yield curve. Below we remind investors that a yield
curve inversion presents a... |
|
March 18,
2006 |
Investor
Alert |
The Bank
of Japan's Pending Rate Hikes
The Bank of Japan (BOJ)
announced last week that over the coming months it will
cease its five-year policy (begun in March 2001) of a zero
short-term (overnight) interest rate and “quantitative
easing.” |
|
March 9,
2006 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
The Year of Living
Dangerously
Investors confused about the
seemingly awkward performance of markets year-to-date should
consider the many ways Washington has injected dangerous
elements into the nation’s political economy. |
|
February 27,
2006 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
February 24,
2006 |
Investment
Focus |
Global Yield Curves and Economic Growth
The currently-inverted U.S. yield curve signals a ... |
|
February 17,
2006 |
Investment
Focus |
Global Yield Curves and Equity Performance
There's no better leading indicator of yearahead equity
performance and economic growth than the local government
yield curve – especially when measured as the spread between
the 10-year bond yield and 3-month bill rate. |
|
February 10,
2006 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
The Next Fed Head: Part 2
It doesn't take long for markets to gauge the likely
impact of newly-installed central planners. |
|
January 31,
2006 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
Greenspan's Record: Better Than Predecessors, Not As Good as
Gold
Since today is Alan Greenspan’s last day as Federal Reserve
chairman, it’s an appropriate time to assess his 18½-year
track record – and what it has meant for investors. Our
review can also serve as a guide to those trying to assess
the likely impact of the next Fed head.1 Contrary to popular
assessments, we find that Greenspan’s track record falls
well short of what it should have been. |
|
January
2006 |
|
Outlook
2006 |
|
January
2006 |
|
Track
Record 2005 |
|
January 6,
2006 |
Investor Alert |
The Fed Wants a Recession
One need only be a fact-oriented realist to know that Fed
officials invariably hike short-term rates until they
inflict widespread pain, whether in the form of stock and
bond price crashes, corporate bankruptcies, house-price
plunges or recessions. But as before, today few people can
make themselves believe it. |
2005 |
|
December 31,
2005 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
December 23,
2005 |
Investment
Focus |
Dubious Dow Theory
Dow Theory suggests a
bullish stance on U.S. stocks for 2006. But the evidence
supports a precisely opposite stance. |
|
December 16,
2005 |
Investor
Alert |
What Gold Portends
Last week we examined
the likely future direction of the gold price – one of the
most important leading indicators (besides the Treasury
yield curve) in our market- based forecasting system... |
|
December 9,
2005 |
Investment
Focus |
The Meaning of Gold at $500
The purchasing power of gold – what an ounce of it buys in
terms of tangible goods – has been relatively stable for
over three centuries.1 That’s why, throughout human history,
civilized nations converged on gold (and gold-convertible
instruments like currency and checks) as money, for gold has
always served as a stable and reliable yardstick. Gold’s
relative stability also explains why England and America –
the two nations most associated with the Industrial
Revolution – were on the gold standard for most of their
history. |
|
November 22,
2005 |
Investment
Focus |
The Business Cycle, Inflation and U.S. Sector Performance
Two market-price signals provide reliable forecasts of the
U.S. business cycle and inflation climate... |
|
November 15,
2005 |
Investor
Alert |
The
Outlook for U.S. Sector Profits
The 'consensus' outlook of analysts and strategists on Wall
Street is for a rise of 12% in S&P 500 profits over the
coming year. |
|
November 7,
2005 |
The Capitalist Advisor |
The Next Fed Head –
Part 1
Two weeks have passed since President Bush
nominated Ben Bernanke to replace Alan Greenspan as chairman
of the dozen-or-so central planners ruling Washington’s
central bank – i.e., the money monopolist known
affectionately as the Federal Reserve. |
|
October 31,
2005 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The "Peak Oil" Thesis:
Supply or Price?
As Yogi Berra once said, “it's
deja vu all over again." As in the late 1970s, when the oil
price nearly tripled in four years (from $11/barrel at the
end of 1975 to $32/barrel at the end of 1979), the
near-tripling of the oil price during the past four years
(from $21/barrel at the end of 2001 to $61/ barrel more
recently) has led to a growing gang of doomsayers claiming
the world is “running out of oil.” In the 1970s it was
called “limits to growth.” Now it’s called “peak oil
theory.” |
|
October 21,
2005 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
October 14,
2005 |
Investment
Focus |
The Japan That Few
Predicted
Few economists or strategists
predicted the strong economic growth or robust equity gains
witnessed in Japan in recent years; fewer still projected
that Japan might outperform other major economies and stock
markets – as it certainly has. |
|
October 7,
2005 |
The Capitalist Advisor |
The Policy Mix Index:
Government Burdens Mount
IFI's Policy Mix
Index (PMI) – a weighted grading system assessing monetary
policy, fiscal policy, trade policy, regulatory policy and
foreign policy – has declined to 13.0 (Table One, page 2),
versus readings of 30.5 (February 2005) and 47.0 (June
2003). |
|
September 30 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
September 23 |
Investment
Focus |
Fed Policy and Equity
Valuation: The Joint Impact on Future Returns
With persistent attention
focused on yet more hurricanes in the U.S. gulf coast,
there’s little recognition of the fact that man-made
disasters can inflict far more harm on the economy, wealth
creation and portfolio performance. The best current example
of this is the Federal Reserve’s interest- rate policy,
which continues moving on a bearish path. |
|
September 9 |
The Capitalist Advisor |
Unionization's Shift to Government
Not capitalist
'injustice' but Marxist dogma has been the main fuel for
labor unionism for most of the past century, especially in
Europe but also to some extent in the U.S. |
|
September 2 |
Investor
Alert |
Disasters: Natural and Man-Made
Insurers currently estimate that
Hurricane Katrina – which swept through the U.S. Gulf Coast
this week and submerged 80% New Orleans under water -- will
cost as much as $75 billion. If so, it will be the costliest
natural disaster in U.S. history (using inflation adjusted
numbers). As we’ll see, the ten largest hurricanes in U.S.
history (since 1900) were followed by an average decline of
3.1% in U.S. equity prices one year later (Table Three, page
3); but the bulk of that decline is explained not by the
hurricanes per se but by Fed policy – i.e., a man-made
disaster. |
|
August 26 |
Investment
Focus |
The Impact on Stocks When
the Fed "Chases" Oil-Price Spikes
Taking all episodes
(since 1967) together we find – contrary to conventional
wisdom – that a rising oil price alone has not been bearish
for U.S. equities. |
|
August 19 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
August 15 |
Investment
Focus |
Interest-Rate Shifts Prior
to Recessions
The U.S. has suffered eight
recessions in the past fifty years, each of which was
signaled by an inverted Treasury yield curve – by the rare
condition of bond yields being below bill yields. |
|
August 4 |
Investor
Alert |
The Return of (and On) the
30-Year T-Bond
As expected, the
U.S. Treasury Department announced yesterday that it would
again issue 30-year bonds, after having suspended new issues
in October 2001... |
|
July 29 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
July 25 |
Investor
Alert |
The Market Impact of
Currency Manipulations in China and Malaysia
Consider what just
happened (last week) with the currencies issued by the
governments in China and Malaysia |
|
July 15 |
The Capitalist Advisor |
The Mythical "Savings Glut"
-- and the Likely Policy Response
Equity investors can
benefit by understanding why the real bond yield is low,
whether it’s likely to remain low or whether it might rise
again. |
|
July 8 |
Investor
Alert |
Market Messages Amid
Terrorism in London
World-wide market
reaction to yesterday's terrorism in London wasn’t nearly as
negative as many analysts expected it might be. What then
might be gleaned from these market messages? |
|
June 30 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
June 24 |
The Capitalist Advisor |
Another Nail in the Coffin
for Property Rights
The U.S. Supreme
Court yesterday ruled that it's perfectly legitimate for a
local government to seize private property, pay a
below-market price and hand it over to another private
citizen or company that claims it can do more with the
property -- i.e., better develop it and pay more taxes to
the local government. |
|
June 17 |
Investor
Alert |
Will the Yield Curve Invert? Sir Alan's Attempt at a Parting
Blow
President Bush says
he’d like to break the rules and extend Sir Alan’s
expiration date; isn’t it nice to see Mr. Bush working so
hard to make the world safe for monetary monarchy? |
|
June 10 |
The Capitalist Advisor |
The SEC: Consequential and
Destructive: Can Christopher Cox Make It Less So?
An "excessive
accumulation of complicated laws" surely characterizes the
U.S. in recent years, especially laws violating the freedom
of corporate executives, investment bankers and CPAs. The
regulatory-litigation craze of recent years has sought to
criminalize business mistakes and create scapegoats to
deflect public anger and criticism away from the government
policy-makers who actually caused the bear market of
2000-2002. |
|
May 27 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
May 23 |
Investment
Focus |
Whither Commodity Prices?
Historically,
commodities have outperformed more-traditional asset classes
(stocks, bonds and bills) -- and usually in consecutive-
year periods -- far more frequently than most people
realize. |
|
May 16 |
Investor
Alert |
Can the Dollar's Rally
Persist?
Since the year
began the U.S. dollar has appreciated between 2% and 5%
against major currencies and by roughly 9% against gold. Can
this rally persist? |
|
May 6 |
Investment
Focus |
Is That It For Corporate
Bonds?
After
underperforming U.S. Treasury bonds materially for roughly
six years (1997-2002, inclusive), corporate bonds in the
U.S. -- whether one considers investment-grade, high yield
or convertible bonds -- have outperformed T-Bonds
significantly since the end of 2002... |
|
April 28 |
Investment
Focus |
The Bearish Inflation
Premium
History makes clear
that inflation is bearish for stocks. Yet many economists
and strategists have difficulty even defining inflation, let
alone measuring or forecasting it. |
|
April 25 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
April 8 |
Investor
Alert |
CAPEX and Sector Performance Re-Visited
The rate of growth
in capital expenditures (CAPEX) by U.S. businesses will
likely decelerate by half over the coming year -– and as we
explain below, this deceleration will likely influence the
relative performance of S&P 500 sectors. |
|
March 31 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
March 21 |
Investor
Alert |
Are There Parallels to the
1930s?
In re-visiting the
ten-year periods following these two prior episodes we'll
try to ascertain whether the S&P 500, over the coming five
years, might share their fate -- that is, might suffer a
weak and halting recovery followed by still further
declines. |
|
March 14 |
Investor
Alert |
Is That It For Small-Cap Stocks?
Is this the year the small-cap winning streak comes to an
end? |
|
March 7 |
Investor
Alert |
Stability, 'Excess' and
Conundrums
We will see yet
another yield-curve inversion before Greenspan finally
leaves the Fed next January? |
|
February 25 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
February 16 |
Investor
Alert |
The 'Mythical Housing
Bubble' Re-Visited
Thirty months ago
we told investors to ignore widespread claims about a U.S.
'housing bubble.' |
|
February 9 |
The Capitalist Advisor |
The Policy Mix Index: The
Fed Slowly Adds Its Poison
IFI's Policy Mix Index (PMI)
-- a weighted grading system assessing monetary policy,
fiscal policy, trade policy, regulatory policy and foreign
policy-- has declined to 30.5 compared to a prior reading of
47.0. |
|
February 2 |
The Capitalist Advisor |
Capitalism's Greatest
Champion
Today marks the centennial of the birth of Ayn Rand --
capitalism's greatest intellectual champion. |
|
January 31 |
Investor
Alert |
Does January Predict the
Markets Full-Year Performance?
The S&P 500 fell
2.53% this month. Therefore, says a popular investment
newsletter, be afraid be very afraid because 2005
necessarily will be a bear market for U.S. stocks. |
|
January 22 |
|
Outlook 2005 |
|
January 17 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
Track Record 2004 |
|
January 10 |
Investment
Focus |
Will U.S. Stocks Keep Trailing, Globally?
From a long-term perspective, it's indisputable that U.S.
equities have underperformed a diversified basket of
equities traded in developed markets abroad. Consider Morgan
Stanley's EAFE index, which is currently comprised of stocks
from twenty-one major markets abroad... |
2004 |
|
|
|
December 27 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster
|
|
December 22 |
Investment
Focus |
How Bond Managers Can Profit from Silver & Gold
The silver price has risen 25% over the past year -- one of
the best-performing assets. For silver investors the
precious metal certainly has given 'pleasure on earth' in
2004; the same can be said for gold, which has risen 10% in
2004 and nearly 38% since April 2003 (surpassing even the
S&P 500's gain of 35%). Can other investors gain by
commodities? Yes. |
|
December 13 |
Investment
Focus |
Note to U.S. Equity Investors:
Deflation is Bullish, While Inflation is Bearish
Many economists and
investment strategists continue to preach that deflation is
'bearish' for corporate profits (due to some alleged lack of
'pricing power') as well as for stock returns, and to insist
that inflation somehow can boost profitability, 'stimulate'
the economy and deliver above-average stock gains. But the
precise opposite is true -- and that's a contrarian insight
from which any astute equity investor can profit. |
|
December 8 |
The Capitalist Advisor |
Microsoft's Dividends
Punctuate the End of a Wonderful Era
Microsoft's new
policy of delivering a greater portion of value through
income instead of through capital gain marks the end of a
wonderful era of rapid growth for the company -- and for
U.S. technology stocks generally. |
|
November 26 |
Investor
Alert |
Home
Grown Financial Terrorism
An
advertisement on talk-radio the other day implored listeners
to buy commodities in anticipation of a huge plunge in the
foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar. The ad claimed
the dollar would plunge due to a surreptitious assault on
the U.S. financial system by foreign terrorists. |
|
November 19 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster
|
|
November 12 |
Investor
Alert |
So-Called Earnings Disappointments
In a 'dull stock' stock market,
such as we've seen this year, it's common for bottom-up
analysts, market strategists and financial journalists to
blame the dullness on 'earnings disappointments' -- to claim
that the market's languor is due to profit growth rates that
have been (or are expected to be) weak or else falling short
of initial expectations. |
|
November 5 |
Investor
Alert |
More Than a Mere Relief Rally Investors should expect this rally to persist and should bet
that it will become more than a temporary 'relief' rally. |
|
October 29 |
The Capitalist Advisor |
Bush Blows a
Big Lead -- and the Stock Market Takes Note Subjective polling continues to suggest a 'dead heat' in the
U.S. presidential race, but objective market prices indicate
that President Bush will likely be re-elected next Tuesday.
Yet the president has blown a huge lead over Mr. Kerry and
as a result, U.S. stock prices have suffered. |
|
October 22 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster
|
|
October 15 |
Investment
Focus |
The Usual Aftermath of Dull Markets
A venerable Wall Street adage tells investors
to 'never short a dull market.' |
|
October 8 |
Investment
Focus |
The Yield
Curve, Credit Spreads and Corporate Bond Returns
As we
expected, corporate credit spreads in the U.S. have narrowed
in the past year and corporate bond returns have surpassed
Treasury bond returns. Can this happen again in the coming
year? |
|
September 30 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster
|
|
September 18
|
The Capitalist Advisor |
Money on the Line Favors Bush -- and a GOP Congress
There seems to be some question about the current status of the U.S. presidential race between George Bush and John Kerry. Some accounts claim that the race is tied. But dont bet on that because investors sure arent. Which investors, specifically? |
|
September 11
|
The Capitalist Advisor |
Three Years and Counting
The abysmal U.S. war effort has translated into abysmal U.S. investment performance.
|
|
September 4 |
The Capitalist Advisor |
The Basics of Inter-Market Forecasting
Four years ago this month IFI launched the inaugural issue of The InterMarket Forecaster, our monthly report on market-price signals and probable year-ahead investment returns. We began our September 2000 issue with a brief review of the basic foundation of the inter-market forecasting approach -- and re-issue it below as a 'refresher' for both old clients and new.
|
|
August 30 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster
|
|
August 20 |
Investor Alert |
The Secrets of Reagan's Success (Part III): Foreign Policy
The economic-financial prosperity of the 1990s would not have been possible without the prowealth policy foundation established by President Ronald Reagan and his supply-side advisers in the 1980s...
|
|
August 13 |
Investor Alert |
Oil's Impact on Japanese Equities
What about the impact of oil-price spikes on
markets in countries like Japan which rely even more heavily
on imported oil than does the U.S.? |
|
August 6 |
Investor Alert |
Dispelling
Some Crude Myths About Oil's Real Impact
Market strategists and
economists are beginning to panic about the recent run-up in
the oil price. But there's no reason to panic. |
|
July 29 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster
|
|
July 21 |
Investor Alert |
When Will
Stock Multiples Expand Again?
The
valuation assigned by investors to corporate earnings in the
U.S. has declined significantly over the past three years,
following a seven-year period of rising valuation beginning
in late-1994. |
|
July 14 |
Investment
Focus |
Corporate
Yield Spreads and U.S. Equity Performance
Spreads among yields on corporate stocks, bonds and bills
(commercial paper) reliably forecast year-ahead stock-price
performance. In this report we focus on the forecasting
power embedded in 1) the spread between yields on corporate
bonds and commercial paper and 2) the spread between yields
on corporate stocks and bonds. |
|
July 7 |
Investor Alert |
Treasury
Chickens Come Home to Roost -- at the Fed A week ago Fed officials embarked on yet another rate-hiking
episode, to the applause of most economists and strategists.
These Fed apologists either do not know how much damage rate
hikes can inflict or else they know it but don't care about
bearish investment results. |
|
June 30 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster
|
|
June 21 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
The Secrets of Reagan's Success (Part II): Economic Policy
Contrary to the propaganda,
Reagan was no dunce and his policy successes were no
accident. Interestingly, Reagan was the only U.S. president
to have majored in economics in college... |
|
June 11 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
The Secrets
of Reagan's Success (Part I): The Role of Government
The undeniable success of
Ronald Reagan in economic and foreign policy reflected three
crucial virtues of the man... |
|
June 3 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
World
Opinion Be Damned It is a testament to the perverse priorities of our
politicians and journalists that the biggest American outcry
over Abu Ghraib has been not about the gruesome decapitation
of American Nicholas Berg by terrorists, but about the fact
that many Arabs and Europeans are mad at us. "We are the
most hated nation in the world," laments Ted Kennedy, "as a
result of this disastrous policy in the prisons." |
|
May 31 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
Bravo for
Grasso One of the great tragedies of recent years -- one which has
cost investors dearly -- has been the utterly craven moral stance of America's top executives. Most of them
have been moral cowards -- unwilling to defend their
freedom, their rights and their lavish pay. Most have/ been
cowed into believing that they are guilty for the vast
destruction in shareholder wealth that we've seen since
2000. In fact this wealth was destroyed by egregious acts of
government failure-- by trust-busting, Fed rate hikes, a
national 'defense' so porous that it permitted the
destruction of 3,000 innocent lives and the World Trade
Center, by tariffs, a shoddy U.S. dollar and the partial
nationalizations of accounting, the NYSE and corporate
governance... |
|
May 27 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster
|
|
May 14 |
Investor
Alert |
U.S. Equity
Performance Surrounding Fed Rate Hikes
How have U.S.
equities performed in the months prior to and during
historical episodes of Fed rate-hiking? Specifically, what
have been the typical returns registered on such equity
'styles' as large-cap or small-cap stocks and value or
growth stocks? Have the returns depended at all on the
magnitude of Fed rate hikes or the initial shape of the U.S.
Treasury yield curve? What can this history tell us about
likely equity returns surrounding the next round of Fed rate
hikes that's soon to begin? We answer these questions below,
after scrutinizing the history surrounding ten distinct
episodes of Fed ratehiking since 1970. |
|
May 9 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
Market Language
versus Fedspeak The essence of the Fed's opaque and arbitrary approach was
best captured by Fed chairman Alan Greenspan in 1999, when
in testimony before the U.S. Congress he said... |
|
April 30 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster
|
|
April 28 |
Investor
Alert |
Will the Fed
(or China) Stop (or Reverse) the Commodity-Price Boom? Just as central planners at the Federal Reserve are
preparing to hike short-term interest rates in order to slow
the growth rate of the U.S. economy, so central planners in
Beijing are preparing policies to slow China's growth. What
impact will these joint, anti-growth policies have on
commodities? Will the multi-year commodity-price boom come
to an abrupt end? |
|
April 24 |
Investor
Alert |
Whither the
U.S. Dollar? The U.S. dollar has been strengthening recently amid the
Federal Reserve's preparation for future rate hikes,
reversing a relatively small part of its massive
depreciation since early 2000. Where is the dollar headed in
the coming months and year? |
|
April 15 |
Investor
Alert |
U.S. Treasury
Bombs When the U.S. Treasury Secretary spends more than two years
promoting a weak dollar on foreign exchange markets, in time
that only undermines the value of the other instruments he
issues: Treasury bonds. |
|
April 8 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
One Rational
Juror Honest capitalists (investors) and entrepreneurs (CEOs)
everywhere should be gratified by the latest mistrial in the
Tyco International case. |
|
March 19 |
Investment
Focus |
Investing in
Rogue Outsourcers What is it that makes firms rogues in the eyes of Dobbs and
traitors in the eyes of Kerry? |
|
March 12 |
Investor
Alert |
Recent Trends
Likely to Reverse
Some of the most profitable investment decisions turn out to
be those made on a contrarian basis. But by 'contrarian' we
do not mean an investor who reflexively does the opposite of
what everyone else is doing because everyone else is doing
it. In our view that's not being contrarian at all; it's
merely another form of conformity -- of blindly following
others. The true contrarian is the one who sees the world as
it really is; he trusts what he knows and retains his vision
of the future despite inane bombardments from clueless
commentators... |
|
March 8 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
Little Guys v. Martha Stewart
With corporate
profits soaring, interest rates still at historic lows and
the dollar beginning to stabilize lately, we believe that
it's far-fetched to claim U.S. stocks have performed poorly
since mid-January 1 for any reason other than the ominous
legal implications of the Martha Stewart trial and
conviction. In our view... |
|
February
27 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster
|
|
February 20 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
Producers in Chains, Parasites
in Charge Economists continue to fret about the lack of job growth in
the U.S. and firms -- increasing resort to 'outsourcing'
(hiring labor in nations abroad, instead of in the U.S.). |
|
February 13 |
Investment
Focus |
Pensions, Profits and
Equities: From Vicious to Virtuous Circle In the three-year period 2000-2002 a vicious circle
developed in which stocks plunged (thereby reducing the
value of pension assets) and T-Bond yields plunged (thereby
raising the present value of future pension obligations).
The result... |
|
February 7 |
|
The Latest Voodoo from the
Currency Cranks The G-7 finance ministers just finished meeting in Boca
Raton and agreed jointly (once again) not to adopt any
policies that might stop (or reverse) the on-going
depreciation in the foreign exchange value of the U.S.
dollar. As we've been predicting since March 2002... |
|
January 31 |
|
Fed Rampage Revisited
Fed rate hikes are bearish for
stocks, bonds and the economy; but as we'll stress, the... |
|
January 22 |
|
Outlook 2004 |
|
January 15 |
|
Track Record
2003 (pdf) |
| January 5 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
Saysian Economics: Part II
We would commit a disservice to
capitalists (investors) -- and an injustice to political
economy -- were we to allow 2003 to pass without commemorating
and celebrating the bicentennial of the greatest economics
book ever written: A Treatise on Political Economy (1803). The
book was authored by the man who we consider (not
coincidentally) to be history's greatest political economist:
Jean-Baptiste Say (1767-1832). |
2003 |
|
|
| December 31 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
Saysian
Economics: Part I We would commit a disservice to
capitalists (investors) -- and an injustice to political
economy -- were we to allow 2003 to pass without commemorating
and celebrating the bicentennial of the greatest economics
book ever written: A Treatise on Political Economy (1803). The
book was authored by the man who we consider (not
coincidentally) to be history's greatest political economist:
Jean-Baptiste Say (1767-1832). |
| December 29 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster
|
| December 15 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
The US War on Drugs: Medicare and
Health Care Stocks What are investors to make of
recently enacted U.S. legislation to empower the federal
government to tax and borrow $450 billion over the decade
(starting January 2006) -- and another $1.3 trillion in the
decade thereafter -- so seniors can buy more prescription
drugs? |
| December 5 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
A Widening Trade Deficit:
Bearish, Neutral or Bullish?
Since the U.S. trade deficit
will continue widening, it might be of interest to know if
this will be a positive or negative factor for investors. |
November 30 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
Thanks Are Due to the U.S.
Military -- Despite a Bush-League War As Thanksgiving week draws to a close, investors have good
reason to be thankful for the stupendous efforts of the U.S.
military in fighting terrorist regimes. |
| November 24 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The InterMarket
Forecaster
|
November 15 |
Investment
Focus |
The
Demolition Team of Klein, Spitzer & Putin
History demonstrates that investors -- i.e., capitalists --
secure optimal portfolio returns in a context in which
private property is protected and the rule of law is
respected. |
| November 7 |
Investment
Focus |
Is A
Commodity-Price Boom Bullish? What becomes of traditional (financial) asset classes and
the economy, especially in the aftermath of a large rise in
commodity prices? Is the rise bullish for them? |
| October 31 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster
|
| October 17 |
Investor
Alert |
Has the Gold Price Peaked?
Investors in financial assets
who ignore gold and commodities do so at the risk of
underperforming... |
| October 11 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
Potential
Aftershocks From California's Political Earthquake
Historically, political trends
in California, for good or ill, have exhibited a curious
tendency to reverberate throughout the U.S., with... |
| October 10 |
Investor
Alert |
A Stronger
Yen is Bullish for Japan
Conventional opinion continues
to insist that the yen's appreciation on foreign exchange
markets somehow is --damaging-- to Japan's economy, profits
and stock prices. But IFI has shown that... |
| September 29 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
The Probacy
of Probes Only widespread government policies that necessarily affect
thousands of businesses and millions of investors can cause
such widespread harm. |
| September 25 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster
|
| September 11 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
America's
Failing War Effort: A Report Card Every astute investor should be concerned about America's
foreign policy and its war effort, especially about the ways
each is likely to affect -- for good or ill -- portfolio
performance. |
| October 31 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster
|
| October 17 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
Has the Gold Price Peaked?
Investors in financial assets
who ignore gold and commodities do so at the risk of
underperforming... |
| October 11 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
Potential
Aftershocks From California's Political Earthquake
Historically, political trends
in California, for good or ill, have exhibited a curious
tendency to reverberate throughout the U.S., with... |
| October 10 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
A Stronger
Yen is Bullish for Japan
Conventional opinion continues
to insist that the yen's appreciation on foreign exchange
markets somehow is --damaging-- to Japan's economy, profits
and stock prices. But IFI has shown that... |
| September 29 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
The Probacy
of Probes Only widespread government policies that necessarily affect
thousands of businesses and millions of investors can cause
such widespread harm. |
| September 25 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster
|
| September 11 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
America's
Failing War Effort Every astute investor should be concerned about America's
foreign policy and its war effort, especially about the ways
each is likely to affect -- for good or ill -- portfolio
performance. |
| September 5 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
The Rulers
and the Ruled The world suffers under regulatory states of every variety.
|
| August 31 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster
|
| August 25 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
An
Intellectual Power Outage: The Sequel
|
| August 18 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
An
Intellectual Power Outage The unenlightened energy policy of the U.S. is solely
responsible for the numerous blackouts of recent years,
including the outage last week, which plunged eight states
(plus parts of Canada) and fifty million people into
darkness -- and into an uncivilized, non-industrial
existence. |
| August 7 |
Investment
Focus |
Rising Bond
Yields: Bullish or Bearish for Stocks?
Give the recent, sharp rise in
U.S. Treasury bond yields, many strategists have come to
assume that it is (or will be) bearish for U.S. stocks.
|
| July 30 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster |
| July 22 |
Investment
Focus |
Secular Bear
Markets Secular bear markets in
equities -- multi-year periods of stagnating or declining
stock prices-- are the bane of every investor. Although
equities tend to deliver the best risk-adjusted returns
(versus other assets) over the very long term (many
decades), investors can waste many years of their
lives with no investment gains if they become mired in a
secular bear market. |
| July 10 |
Investor
Alert |
Sector
Forecasts Yielding Investor Profits
In the nine months since U.S.
stock prices hit a trough on October 9th the S&P 500 sectors
that IFI favored nine months ago (at the end of September
20021) have outperformed those sectors that we disfavored --
by 21.2% points using a simple average and by 10.6% points
using a weighted average (based on our advised weightings in
late-September). ...Annualizing this nine-month performance,
we find that the expected out-performers beat the expected
under- performers by 14.1% points. Our sector forecasts have
been very profitable for those investors who've fully
deployed them. |
| June 30 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster |
| June 24 |
Investor
Alert |
Fed Rate
Cuts, the Gold Price and U.S. Equity Performance According to one account of the Federal Reserve meetings
taking place today and tomorrow, Fed officials are likely to
cut the overnight Fed Funds rate (currently 1.25%) because
they are 'impatient' to see an economic recovery in the
U.S.1 In our view, using market-price estimates, Fed
officials will cut rates, but that stuff about 'impatience'
is pure hogwash -- as is the widespread claim that Fed rate
cuts are quickly bullish for equities. In fact, rate cuts
tend to be bullish only after a long lag -- and only after
the Fed makes clear that it's finished with rate-cutting.
Rate cuts are bearish while they're being enacted (and
promised). |
| June 13 |
Investment
Focus |
Plunging
T-Bond Yields: Bullish or Bearish for U.S. Equities? The U.S. T-Bond yield has plunged by nearly 175 basis points
in the past year (to 3.20%) -- the fourth-largest (annual)
drop since 1920. Is that bullish or bearish for U.S.
equities? |
| June 9 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
The Policy
Mix Index A further improvement in the U.S. 'policy mix' is apparent
-- and that should provide a reasonably bullish context for
U.S. equity performance over the coming few quarters. |
| May 30 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
Why Do
Equities Cool When the Weather Gets Hot?
As investors look
toward the summer months, those aware of seasonal variations
in equity performance may recall the old Wall Street adage:
'Sell in May and go away.' |
| May 23 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster |
| May 12 |
Investment
Focus |
Sector and
Industry BETAs as Signals of Relative Equity Performance
In corporate finance, BETA is a historical measure of a
stock's variability relative to the variability seen in some
broader index (like the S&P 500). If the broad market is
likely to rise by any material degree, one can reasonably
expect high-BETA stocks to rise by even more (i.e., they'll
be likely out-performers). Similarly, such stocks are likely
to decline by more than the entire market declines (they'll
be likely under-performers) -- when the market declines
materially. |
| May 7 |
Investor
Alert |
What Does a
Weak Jobs Recovery Portend for U.S. Stocks?
What signal, if
any, might a U.S. equity investor obtain by observing a
weak, post- recession recovery in U.S. employment? The
answer is: a less bullish signal than if job growth has been
robust. Indeed, job growth has not been robust in the U.S.
since the last recession ended in December 2001. Nor has
output grown very quickly -- at least not when compared to
eight other recoveries in the U.S. since the 1950s.
|
| April 30 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster |
| April 21 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
Iraq: One
Battle in a Wider War
Many commentators have
remarked recently that the U.S. stock market has not
rebounded by as much as they expected, especially given the
recent, rapid U.S. military success in Iraq. Others fear the
market will be stuck in a long-term trading range... |
| April 9 |
Investment
Focus |
Exchange-Traded Funds: Asset Allocation Made Easy
What factor most
explains an investor's performance in any particular year --
or over many years, for that matter? Extensive market
research has demonstrated that nearly 95% of performance is
attributable to one's initial asset allocation. The balance
is due to the timing of investments and the selection of
specific securities. While most investors consider only the
typical, tri-partite allocation (stocks, bonds and bills),
we've shown that commodities de- serve as much attention --
as a separate class that of- ten outperforms stocks, bonds
and bills. S&P 500) or its sub-indexes, especially after
deducting their (often exorbitant) management expenses. |
| April 3 |
Investor
Alert |
Gold: The
Objective War Correspondent
Now, more than
ever, equity investors should pay attention to the message
being delivered by gold. Let the neophytes get their 'news'
from biased reporters like Peter Arnett and Geraldo Rivera
-- or from the media sheep who nip at the heels of U.S.
military leaders in daily briefings at Central Command in
Qatar. And let the Keynesians persist in dismissing gold as
a 'barbaric relic.' It's no such thing -- and in recent
weeks it's been predicting a swift and decisive U.S. defeat
of the real barbaric relic, a.k.a. Saddam Hussein.
|
| March 31 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
From
Containment to Pre-Emption: A New, Pro-Capitalist Defense
Policy The U.S. war
against the terrorist regime in Iraq is a proper and welcome
action. In our view it should have occurred long ago. But on
the bright side, this war could mark the beginning of a new,
pro-capitalist (and bullish) U.S. foreign policy. |
| March 28 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster |
| March 14 |
Investment
Focus |
CAPEX, the
'Excess Capacity' Myth and Sector Performance
Yesterday's sharp
price action gave investors just a small taste of what's to
come if the U.S. finally wages war quickly and effectively.
Equity prices and the dollar shot upward, gold and oil
prices plunged and the T-Bond yield increased (allowing a
narrowing in corporate spreads). Market commentators
continue to mislead investors by claiming that such equity
rallies (and commodity-price declines) reflect a lesser
chance of war. In fact they reflect a great chance of war.
The news that most affected markets yesterday was testimony
by Colin Powell that the U.S. would likely go to war even if
it does not getting backing from the U.N. |
| March 7 |
Investor
Alert |
Snow "Isn't
Troubled"-- So Markets Are
As we predicted, new
U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow has presided, without
objection, over a weak dollar. He hasn't said explicitly
that he favors a weak dollar. But his actions speak louder
than his words; he's done nothing to stem the dollar's
decline. |
| February 28 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster |
| February 24 |
Invester
Alert |
Inflation,
Inflation Everywhere -- But Not a Jot, They Think
It is somewhat bizarre that
economists, Fed officials and commentators in the financial
media have been worrying about 'deflation' (a rise in the
purchasing power of a currency) in recent years and months.
Not only is deflation non-existent -- but if it did exist it
would be bullish for equity performance. |
| February 17 |
The
Capitalist Advisor |
Bush is All
Hat and No Horse Investors should be careful
not to be fooled by the conventional commentary about war
and the markets. Every week that U.S. stock prices and the
U.S. dollar decline, while oil and gold prices rise,
commentators attribute the pattern to 'war.' Every time
stocks and the dollar rise, while oil and gold prices
decline, the moves are attributed to a lessened chance of
war. If that were true an investor in U.S. stocks should be
bearish (and an investor in commodities should be bullish)
if there is war. Equally, if there is no war, one should be
bullish on stocks and bearish on commodities. But it isn't
true. Indeed, the facts support exactly the opposite
conclusion. which itself harbors terrorist regimes as
'voting' members who oppose U.S. self-defense. |
| February 7 |
Investment
Focus |
Corporate
Leverage, Credit Spreads and Bond Yields
Fixed income investors
who understand the nature of corporate credit spreads are in
a far better position to outperform peers compared to those
who don't. Credit spreads--measured as the differences
between yields on corporate bonds and yields on Treasury
bonds -- exhibit both a cyclical and a secular character.
|
| January 31 |
|
Dividend
Taxes, Capital Taxes and Investment Returns Historically, lower tax rates in the U.S. have been
associated with above-average returns on U.S. stocks and
bonds, while higher tax rates have accompanied below-average
returns on each asset class. Thus there is an undeniably
bullish aspect to the Bush Administration's recent proposal
to abolish the federal tax on dividend in- come and to
accelerate scheduled reductions in marginal tax rates on
other personal income. But the extent to which these
proposals are watered down by Congress or delayed in
implementation the near-term effect will be bearish. |
| January 23 |
|
Outlook 2003
This outlook provides
investors with market-based forecasts of more than 100
separate variables, 80% of which represent investable
assets. Thus the forecasts provide practical guidance to
portfolio managers. IFI covers currencies, commodities,
stocks, bonds and bills--as well as sector and 'style' bets.
Finally, we contrast our forecasts of the S&P 500 price
index, S&P 500 operating profits, the price-earnings
multiple and the 10-year T-Bond yield with those of leading
strategists at Wall Street brokerage firms |
| January 8 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
Informative Anomalies
When, in the 131-year history of S&P indexes
before 2002, did the price index 1) decline two straight
years, 2) decline by more in the second year than the first
and 3) decline while profits increased? |
|
January 1 |
|
Track Record
2002 |
2002 |
|
|
| December 31 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster |
| December 20 |
Investor
Alert |
War, Gold
Research, and Jobs A number of recent
developments relating to the 'war,' the gold price, a Wall
Street research 'settlement' and the 'jobless recovery' are
worth noting and explaining -- especially as they are
influencing (and will influence) U.S. stocks. |
| December 10 |
Investor
Alert |
The Snow Job
at Treasury We were amused to find that market commentators and the
media were nearly breathless last weekend in describing the
alleged 'shake-up' in President Bush's economic policy team.
On December 6th the President fired Paul O'Neil (Secretary
of the Treasury) and Larry Lindsey (head of the National
Economic Council). Presumably, the President was un-happy
with the pair (as he should have been) especially the more
important of the two, Mr. O'Neill. Why, then, did Bush
bother, yesterday, to nominate John Snow, a near-clone of
O'Neill? |
| December 6 |
Investment
Focus |
Inflation,
Deflation, and Investment Returns
Equity markets in the
U.S. and Japan have suffered in recent years from inflation
- not from deflation," as everyone claims. That's why
commodities have outperformed stocks in the past three
years. Such out-performance is not uncommon: since 1970 in
the U.S. commodities have out-performed stocks more than
half the time. History shows that inflation is bearish for
stocks, while deflation is bullish. To ensure a new bull
market in equities, U.S. and Japanese officials must deflate
their currencies - or, at the very least, inflate them at a
far-lesser rate than they have been since 2000. Until and
unless they do so, equities will remain under pressure.
|
| November 30 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
Free Speech
and the Integrity of Research
Investors are best-served by a
free flow of information -- not only information of the
highest-quality, but information that's analyzed
objectively. Unless forecasts are based on sound information
and objective methods, they are useless (when not dangerous)
to a portfolio manager. Viewing the state of investment
information, research and forecasting today, one finds that
each is sorely lacking both in quality and objectivity.
|
| November 27 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster |
| November 12 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
The Policy
Mix Index: A Slight Improvement
IFI's measure of the
U.S. 'policy mix' since we introduced our inaugural reading
last April. The index now stands at 43.5, up from 41.8 in
April. This reading lies roughly in-between a 'mildly
bullish' and 'bullish' signal, with a slight-leaning toward
'bullish.' The policy mix index primarily signals the likely
performance of U.S. equities in the coming year.
|
| November 6 |
Investment
Focus |
The Almighty
Consumer is Depressed--and That's Bullish
According to the Conference
Board, which has published a "consumer confidence" index
since 1967, American consumers were more depressed in
October than at any time since November 1993. The index fell
to 79.4 in October, down from 93.7 in September and off
28.3% from a recent peak of 110.7 in March.1 That was the
largest seven- month decline since 1970. It all sounds
pretty grim. In fact, most economists and market
commentators -- after repeating the age-old myth that
"consumers represent two-thirds of the economy" -- interpret
the latest reading as a bearish signal for stocks and the
economy. |
| October 31 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster |
| October 18 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
The Injustice
of Insider-Trading Rules
Insider-trading rules
punish innocent and productive behavior -- and destroy
share- holder wealth. The case against ImClone's Sam Waksal
is only the most recent historical example of this. Nearly
$5 billion of ImClone's market value (or 90% of its peak)
has been destroyed by U.S. regulators: by the fraudulent
acts of both SEC and FDA officials. Investors must consider
regulatory risk. This report examines the ImClone-Waksal
case -- as well as the broader issue of insider trading
rules and why they undermine the stock market. |
| October 14 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
Elections
Futures Market Points to Status Quo in U.S. Congress
When it comes to
forecasting election outcomes, market prices are more
informative and reliable than public opinion polls -- just
as market prices offer better fore- casts of investment
outcomes, com- pared to the widespread use of in-accurate
and backward-looking economic-accounting data (or
'sentiment' measures). When people put their money where
their mouths are, they tend to be more focused, rational and
candid.
|
| October 7 |
Investor
Alert |
A
'Spring-Loaded' Stock Market
Everyone is familiar
with the fake canister of peanuts used as a practical joke
on the unsuspecting: remove the lid and out pops toy
'snakes' made of coils wrapped in cloth. The victim of the
joke is momentarily startled by what springs out and shoots
across the room -- or in his face. Investors may well
experience a similar surprise some time in the coming months
-- a surprise involving not snakes, but stock prices. |
| September 30 |
Investor
Alert |
A 'Template'
for Persecuting Wall Street
Government officials in the
U.S.— at the SEC and the Attorney General's Office of the
State of New York — are compelling brokerage firms to pay
huge fines, artificially separate their internal
departments, fire investment bankers, impose censorship on
analysts, appoint lawyers instead of bankers as their CEOs,
and curb the firms' favorable treatment of their best
clients. This unjust and wealth- destroying persecution was
initiated against Merrill Lynch last spring but it continues
currently against Salomon Smith Barney (part of Citigroup)
and is likely to be extended to at least a half-dozen other
brokerage firms before the year is out. |
| September 27 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster |
| September 17 |
Investment
Alert |
Appeasement
Persists -- and Destroys Wealth A year ago --in the wake of terrorist attacks on America --
we showed how they were the result of decades of U.S.
appeasement of Arabic-Islamic barbarism. We warned of
bearish market consequences as a result of U.S. officials
showing signs -- even after September 11th -- of continued
appeasement.3 That is precisely what we've seen over the
past year. |
|
September 10 |
Capitalist Advisor |
Greenspan's Gremlins
The three most
important factors for U.S. equity investors to have known in
recent years--setting aside any possible foreknowledge of
the terrorist attacks of a year ago--were 1) changes in the
dollar price of gold, 2) the position of the Treasury yield
curve and 3) the Federal Reserve's view of so- called
'bubbles.' |
| August 30 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
The
InterMarket Forecaster |
| August 28 |
Investment
Focus |
The Mythical
Housing 'Bubble' |
| August 20 |
Investment
Alert
|
CEOs Sign
Away Their Lives
|
|
August 5 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
Guess What's
Wrong with Hong Kong?
Most
Asian stocks have dramatically outperformed the U.S. so far
this year (and most of the past year). Hong Kong has been an
exception--as it has for most of the past five years. Not
coincidentally, it was five years ago that the world's
largest communist dictatorship (China) took over the only
nation in the world that remotely approximated laissez-faire
capitalism (Hong Kong). At the time most economists and
market commentators believed China's officials would abide
by their promise of "one country, two systems"--and that
China wouldn't dare "kill the goose that laid the golden
eggs." |
|
July 29 |
Capitalist Advisor |
What the World Needs Now Is
Greed— More Greed
A Secretary Paul O'Neill, SEC
Chairman Harvey Pitt, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, the U.S.
Congress (especially the Republicans), parrot-like
media pundits and even 'the man on the street' (who usually
knows better than all of the above) -- believes the U.S.
stock market has lost $8 trillion (or 46%) from its peak
value in March 2000 (or even the $3.5 trillion that's been
lost in the past year) due to 'corporate greed' and 'fraud.'
They also believe that greed engenders fraud. |
|
July 24 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
July 12 |
Capitalist Advisor |
The War on
Business Intensifies
Instead of conducting a
'War on Terrorism,' the U.S. government-- to the applause of
most economists, journalists and (yes) CEOs--is conducting a
War on Business. |
|
July 4 |
Capitalist Advisor |
Put The "Independence" Back In
Independence Day--The Forgotten Meaning Of America |
|
June 30 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster |
|
June 28 |
Capitalist Advisor |
The Government Takeover of
Accounting Should government interventions intensify -- as is now
likely -- investors should expect the quality of accounting
to deteriorate still further. |
|
June 19 |
Capitalist Advisor |
The Wealth-Transfer Tax Lives
At 55%, the top U.S. estate
tax--better called a wealth-transfer tax--is the
third-highest in the world |
|
June 7 |
Investor Alert |
Mr. Market Is Not
Pleased
Mr. Market is not pleased--especially with the U.S. policy mix.
Instead of killing
terrorists and vanquishing the governments of
terror-sponsoring nations, U.S. officials are trying to
build a nation-wide 'bunker' that imposes more regulations
and costs on business! The U.S. is in the middle of
what is, effectively, World War III. It's the Muslim World
versus the Civilized World (what's left of it). Yet U.S.
officials, instead of fighting known enemies, are
effectively appeasing them and surrendering to them. At the
same time, an unjust domestic war is being waged in
Washington against innocent businesses and shareholders.
|
|
May 31 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster
|
| May 28 |
Capitalist Advisor |
Capital on Strike, Part II |
| May 21 |
Capitalist Advisor |
Capital on Strike Investors should realize that what's commonly referred to as
"capital flight" is actually capital going on strike.
Another form of it can be seen in the history of 'brain
drains'--usually of the most-intelligent entrepreneurs,
engineers, doctors and scientists--away from oppressive
regimes toward less oppressive or liberalized ones. |
| May 7 |
Investment Focus |
Is It May Day For the Dollar?
The universal signal of
distress for aircraft pilots when their plane is going down
is "May Day." Fittingly, the U.S. dollar's decline in recent
months accelerated after May Day last week -- the same day
U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, in testimony before
Congress, effectively abdicated responsibility for the value
of the dollar. |
|
April 30 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster
|
|
April 24 |
Capitalist Advisor |
Introducing the 'Policy
Mix Index' In this report we introduce a 'Policy Mix
Index' (PMI) to help investors assess overall government
policy and its likely impact on equity returns, profits and
the economy. |
|
April 15 |
Investment Focus |
Is An Oil Price Spike
Necessarily Bearish?
The oil price cannot be
viewed in isolation if investors wish to avoid misleading
conclusions (and inaccurate forecasts of portfolio
performance). |
|
April 8 |
Investor Alert |
Are There Still "Reasons to Be
Bullish"—A Retrospective |
|
March 29 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
The InterMarket Forecaster
|
|
March 22 |
Investor Alert |
Return of the Market Saboteurs
|
|
March 19 |
Investment Focus |
Convertibles with the Top-
Down |
|
March 15 |
Capitalist Advisor |
Forgotten Heroes of 9/11
|
|
March 12 |
Capitalist Advisor |
Protectionism and the Dollar
|
|
February 28 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
InterMarket Forecaster
|
|
February 25 |
Capitalist Advisor |
Misplaced Investor Wrath
|
|
February 13 |
Investor Alert |
What Are the Chances of a Bear
Market "Three-peat?" |
|
February 6 |
Capitalist Advisor |
A Tale of Two Bankruptcies:
Enron and Argentina |
|
January 30 |
Capitalist Advisor |
To Get Money Out of Politics,
Get Politics Out of Money-Making |
|
January 29 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
InterMarket Forecaster |
|
January 23 |
|
Outlook 2002 |
|
January 14 |
|
Track Record 2001 |
|
January 8 |
Investor Alert |
"Fed Activism, the Yield Curve
and the U.S. Business Cycle" |
|
January 4 |
Capitalist Advisor |
"Is "Europhoria" Warranted?"
|
2001 |
|
|
|
December
28 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
|
|
December
21 |
Capitalist Advisor |
"Why Christmas Should Be More
Commercial" |
|
December
11 |
Investor Alert |
"Argentina's Collapse in the
Context of Previous Emerging Market Disasters" |
|
December 4 |
Investor Alert |
"DJIA-NASDAQ Ratio as
Forecaster of Relative Performance" |
|
November
27 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
|
|
November
21 |
Capitalist Advisor |
"Thanksgiving: Producer's
Holiday" |
|
November
15 |
Capitalist Advisor |
"Messages From Sector
Rotation" |
|
November 7 |
Investor Alert |
"U.S. Market Performance
Surrounding Recession" |
|
October 31 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
|
|
October 25 |
Investor Alert |
"The Recent Market Rebound -
Is It Sustainable?" |
|
October 17 |
Capitalist Advisor |
"The Ignoble Nobels"
|
|
October 5 |
Investor Alert |
"Those Alleged Stimulus
Measures" |
|
September
30 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
|
|
September
26 |
Investor Alert |
"U.S. Market Performance
Surrounding War" |
|
September
22 |
Capitalist Advisor |
"U.S. Officials Fiddle While
America Burns" |
|
September
19 |
Investor Alert |
"All Bets Are Off: Here's What
Investors Should Do Now" |
|
September
17 |
Capitalist Advisor |
"Terrorism and Its
Appeasement" |
|
September
7 |
Investor Alert |
"A Victory for Microsoft - and
the Market" |
|
August 24 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
|
|
August 21 |
Investor Alert |
"The Waiting Game"
|
|
August 15 |
Capitalist Advisor |
"The Crime of '71: A
Retrospective" |
|
August 10 |
Investor Alert |
"The U.S. Dollar: Able
Forecaster of Financial Returns" |
|
July 31 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
|
|
July 26 |
Capitalist Advisor |
"Cutting Through the
Globaloney in Genoa" |
|
July 20 |
Investor Alert |
"Canada: Is There A Case For
Northern Exposure?" |
|
July 10 |
Investor Alert |
"Trustbusting: The Risk That
Won't Recede" |
|
June 31 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
|
|
June 28 |
Investor Alert |
"Argentina's Blind Date With
an Ugly Currency" |
|
June 18 |
Investor Alert |
"GE and the EC's Trustbusters"
|
|
June 11 |
Capitalist Advisor |
"The GOP's Senate Loss:
Bearish, Neutral or Bullish?" |
|
May 31 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
|
|
May 23 |
Investor Alert |
|
|
May 15 |
Investor Alert |
"Capital Gains Tax and Equity
Returns" |
|
May 7 |
Capitalist Advisor |
"Greenspan's 'Reserve Armies'
- and Your Portfolio" |
|
April 30 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
"Golden
Rules to Profit By"
|
|
April 25 |
Investor Alert |
"Argentina: Flirting With Disaster"
|
|
April 20 |
Investor Alert |
"Substantial Fed Rate Cuts Hardly A Surprise"
|
|
April 6 |
Investor Alert |
"Reasons
to be Bullish Today: A Near Mirror Image of Reasons to be
Bearish a Year Ago"
|
|
March 30 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
|
|
March 23 |
Investor Alert
|
"Japan
Doesn't Need More Yen, It Needs a More Valuable Yen."
|
|
March 16 |
Investor Alert
|
"Better
Policy Deferred is Not What Markets Prefer"
|
|
February
28 |
InterMarket Forecaster |
|
|
February
23 |
Investor Alert |
"Stagflation" Is Last Year's News
|
|
February
14 |
Capitalist Advisor
|
"The Bush
Tax Cuts: Bigger - and Sooner - Would Be Better."
|
|
January 30
|
InterMarket Forecaster
|
|
|
January 4
|
Investor Alert
|
"Fed Does
the Right Thing - And Bullishness is Warranted"
|
2000 |
|
|
|
December 20 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
|
|
December 14 |
Investor Alert |
"The NASDAQ Plunge
in Historical Contest" |
|
December 8
|
Capitalist Advisor
|
"Transition 2000: The GOP Mandate and the Bush Cabinet"
|
|
November 22 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
|
|
November 13 |
Investor Alert |
"Portfolios are
Being Gored - But Market Resilience Reflects Improving
Fundamentals" |
|
November 9 |
Investor Alert |
"Investing Amidst
Mob Rule" |
|
November 4 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
"Campaign
2000: It Looks Like a GOP Sweep - and That's Bullish" |
|
October 20 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
|
|
October 19 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
"Campaign 2000: Bush
Makes a Comeback - But Still Trails in Futures Markets" |
|
October 16 |
Investor Alert |
"It's a Bloody Good
Time to Be Bullish" |
|
October 10 |
Investor Alert |
"Gold - Not Debt -
Forecasts Bond Yields" |
|
October 5 |
The Capitalist
Advisor |
"Campaign 2000: Wait
- It Gets Worse" |
|
October 2 |
Investor Alert |
"Euro-Trash" |
|
September 25 |
InterMarket
Forecaster |
|
|
September 8 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
"Bush's Risky
Campaign Scheme" |
|
August 21 |
Investor Alert |
"What Will the Fed
Do After Tomorrow?" |
|
August 14 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
"'Retiring' Social
Security: Investment Implications of Proposed Reforms - and
Beyond"
|
|
August 7 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
"How Gore Might
Bushwhack the GOP" |
|
July 21 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
"The Injustice of
Antitrust" |
|
July 10 |
Investor Alert
|
"Fed Policy, Yield
Spreads and Bond Returns" |
|
June 30 |
Investor Alert |
"Fed Wrecking Crew
Takes a Coffee Break" |
|
June 15 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
"The Rational Basis
of Price-Earnings Multiples" |
|
May 29 |
Investor Alert |
"When Will the
NASDAQ Hit a Real Bottom?" |
|
May 10 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
"Fed Rate Hikes
Would Only Further Boost Inflation" |
|
May 1 |
Investor Alert |
"When Earnings
Season Becomes Open Season" |
|
April 17 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
"The Anti-Wealth
Effect" |
|
April 4 |
Investor Alert |
"Antitrust:
Landmarks and Landmines" |
|
March 29 |
Investor Alert |
"Oil Headed for
$20/bbl Regardless of OPEC" |
|
March 21 |
Investor Alert |
"The Cancer
Threatening Biotech Stocks" |
|
February 22 |
Capitalist
Advisor |
"Why Greenspan
Trashes the Markets" |
|
February 4 |
Investor Alert |
"How Long Can This
Keep Going On?" |