Publications

Research Reports - Chronological

2009 Reports

Date Report Title
June 26, 2009 The Capitalist Advisor The Force Fed
Although we remain favorable on financial stocks in the near term (over the next year), that’s largely in expectation of a bear market rally and V-shaped rebound from the depths seen in March (some of which has already occurred); for the longer-term (over the next decade), the independence and prosperity of U.S. banks will be further eroded.
June 19, 2009 The InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
June 9, 2009 Investor Alert Politicized Bankruptcy and the Mistreatment of Bondholders
The contractual rights of creditors-lenders-investors are being violated and abrogated by the growing politicization of the U.S. bankruptcy system, which now aims at favoring partisan groups; this will elevate the risk of investing in corporate debt, especially of unionized and/or partially nationalized firms, and should preclude a return to extremely narrow credit spreads.
May 31, 2009 Investor Alert Despite the Plunge in Retail Sales , Retail Stocks Should Outperform
U.S. retail sales will likely remain weak for a while longer, in delayed reaction to the prior inversion of the yield curve; but retail stocks are forward-looking and anticipate future profits , not future sales. Retailers’ margins can widen, even amid weakness in their top-line sales.
May 25, 2009 The InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
May 22, 2009 Investor Alert Helicopter Ben's Paper Trail
An irresponsible and unrestrained inflationary policy is precisely what Bernanke has adopted as Fed chairman over the past year...
May 11, 2009 The Capitalist Advisor

Is the Worst of Public Policy Already Priced In?
Bush-Obama policymakers, sanctioned by an irresponsible and lawless Congress, have repeatedly assaulted the crucial pillars of profit-seeking and wealth creation: the rule of law, sanctity of contract, and security of property. But the horrors have been priced in, for now.

April 30, 2009 Investor Alert Sadly, U.S. Public Policy Remains Coercive
Anti-capitalist public policies have destroyed roughly $7 trillion, or 50% of the value of publicly-traded U.S firms in the past decade; economic output is now below its level of 1999; and U.S. bank stocks are now worth less than in 1991.
April 24, 2009 The InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
April 20, 2009 The Capitalist Advisor Socialist Finance in America – Part V
Consider the options available to a government that says it will guarantee the deposits of the banking system, a government that considers the majority of banks too big or too important to a community to fail, a government that, in making these assurances, and otherwise intervening in the money and credit system, ends up undermining the financial condition of the banking system. There is only one option available to such a government and that is to take over failed banks and run them as part of the government.
April 10, 2009   Track Record 2008
March 31, 2009 The Capitalist Advisor Banking Without the “Too-Big-to-Fail” Doctrine
The same policy that contributed so much to the recent banking crisis – the “too-big-to-fail” doctrine – also contributed to the previous crisis, in 1990-1991. Below is a speech I delivered in May 1992 at a Federal Reserve Bank conference in Dallas. It seems even more relevant today. At the time I worked at Citicorp, but certainly was not speaking at the Fed on behalf of that “too-big-tofail” bank. The same factors undermining the banks back then have been undermining them recently, nearly two decades hence – which is a sad commentary on the refusal of bankers and policymakers to repeal state subsidization of failure and insolvency. As predicted below, we’re now seeing a creeping nationalization of the biggest, most reckless banks – a.k.a., socialist finance.
March 27, 2009 Investment Focus Residential MBS Revisited
Two years ago, amid early turmoil in housing and sub-prime mortgages – yet before most portfolio managers saw even the hints of economic recession or any bear market in equities or junk bonds – we made the case that non-sub-prime residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) would yield steadier and superior returns versus those on T-Bonds, riskier mortgage bonds and corporate bonds, or stocks. While...
March 18, 2009 The InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
March 9, 2009 The Capitalist Advisor The Silver Lining in Job Destruction
February 28, 2009 The Capitalist Advisor Obama's Plans Will 'Work' -- to Breed Dependence
February 25, 2009 The InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
February 20, 2009 The Capitalist Advisor Depressing Growth, Stimulating Inflation
Investors should beware of jargon laced laws and interventionist schemes bearing titles conveying the precise opposite of their actual, likely effect. The latest, so-called “stimulus” package is, in fact, a depressive package.
February 13, 2009 The Capitalist Advisor Why They Won’t Leave Bad Enough Alone
They believe free markets, left to their own devices, are prone to breakdown and “failure,” yet fixable and curable by government intervention. They attribute the recent economic-financial credit crisis to tax cuts, de-regulation, or “gaps” of non-regulation. They say greed is a vice which breeds fraud and recklessness. They insist that government can “stimulate” an economy by a near-endless printing of its money and bonds. They declare to critics that the only alternative to their interventions is to “do nothing.”
January 31, 2009 The Capitalist Advisor Debating Doctor Doom II
In 2007-2008 we had to counter the perma-bulls. Now it’s time to oppose the perma-bears.
January 27, 2009 The Capitalist Advisor Debating Doctor Doom I
In 2007-2008 we had to counter the perma-bulls. Now it’s time to oppose the perma-bears.
January 15, 2009 Outlook 2009
January 12, 2009 Investment Focus Forecasting Equity Volatility
A well-recognized adage holds that markets hate uncertainty and volatility, which reflect incomplete knowledge and less visibility about the future.