Publications

Research Reports - Chronological

2009 Reports

Date Report Title
February 25, 2009 The InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
February 20, 2009 The Capitalist Advisor Depressing Growth, Stimulating Inflation
Investors should beware of jargon laced laws and interventionist schemes bearing titles conveying the precise opposite of their actual, likely effect. The latest, so-called “stimulus” package is, in fact, a depressive package.
February 13, 2009 The Capitalist Advisor Why They Won’t Leave Bad Enough Alone
They believe free markets, left to their own devices, are prone to breakdown and “failure,” yet fixable and curable by government intervention. They attribute the recent economic-financial credit crisis to tax cuts, de-regulation, or “gaps” of non-regulation. They say greed is a vice which breeds fraud and recklessness. They insist that government can “stimulate” an economy by a near-endless printing of its money and bonds. They declare to critics that the only alternative to their interventions is to “do nothing.”
January 31, 2009 The Capitalist Advisor Debating Doctor Doom II
In 2007-2008 we had to counter the perma-bulls. Now it’s time to oppose the perma-bears.
January 27, 2009 The Capitalist Advisor Debating Doctor Doom I
In 2007-2008 we had to counter the perma-bulls. Now it’s time to oppose the perma-bears.
January 15, 2009 Outlook 2009
January 12, 2009 Investment Focus Forecasting Equity Volatility
A well-recognized adage holds that markets hate uncertainty and volatility, which reflect incomplete knowledge and less visibility about the future.

2008 Reports

Date Report Title
December 24, 2008 The Capitalist Advisor Socialist Finance in America – Part IV
December 15, 2008 Investment Focus The U.S. Yield Curve as a Predictor of the Business Cycle
The latest U.S. recession began a year ago (in December 2007) and was ably predicted by the prior inversion of the Treasury yield curve.
December 11, 2008 Investment Focus U.S. Economic-Financial Performance Surrounding Recessions
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), which assigns “official” dates to the beginnings and endings of U.S. recessions, finally conceded recently that the latest U.S. recession began in December 2007 – a year ago.1 While some will ridicule NBER’s economists for their tardy call, it should be remembered that the NBER is not a forecasting firm but rather a research institute that wishes to be careful about accurately dating recessions. We at IFI, on the other hand, do purport to forecast the economy and markets; indeed, we forecasted the U.S. recession a year before it began – i.e., two years ago – in December 2006. 
November 30, 2008 The Capitalist Advisor Socialist Finance in America – Part III
Money and credit are inextricably linked; once money is nationalized, credit soon follows, and government involvement only increases the risk-taking. In communist China they have what are called “policy banks,” or banks which are technically insolvent yet receive special government support and favors in return for serving as a conduit for state policies. Citigroup is now a policy bank, and like AIG in the insurance sector, it will become even more of a black hole than it already is.
November 21, 2008 The Capitalist Advisor Socialist Finance in America – Part II
When we last visited the recent onslaught of socialist financial policies in America, we explained that Washington was preparing to partially nationalize America’s top banks, thus launching the U.S. into the third phase of its century-long trek toward a socialist regime of money and banking.
November 7, 2008 The Capitalist Advisor U.S. Equity Performance When the Democrats Control Washington
In America it is commonly believed that Republicans are pro-business, pro-Wall Street and hence good for stocks, relative to the Democrats, who are viewed as prolabor, anti-business, anti-Wall Street and hence bad for stocks. Are such perceptions closer to fact or to myth?
October 31, 2008 The InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
October 27, 2008 Investor Alert

The Scapegoat Phase
In the scapegoat phase, near the end of bear markets, attention is deflected away from the real perpetrators and toward those who either didn’t cause the crisis or were its victims. This scapegoat phase alone has obvious bearish implications.

October 20, 2008 Investor Alert

The Mythical Credit Crunch
According to one account of recent market events, “credit, the lifeblood of capitalism, has ceased to flow.” Now “ceased” is a rather extreme term to describe such broad market activity as lending and borrowing, but this is typical of the exaggerations perpetuated in recent months, not only by journalists but also by politicians, regulators and even market professionals. We’re all told repeatedly and breathlessly that there’s a “credit meltdown” going on, that credit markets are “frozen,” that “banks aren’t lending,” that “no one can get a loan,” that credit mechanisms have “seized up,” “shut down” or “collapsed.” To some hand-wringers – those who are the most ignorant of history – credit markets are supposedly poorer today than at any other time since the 1930s....

October 15, 2008 The Capitalist Advisor Socialist Finance in America – Part I
As Washington prepares this week to partially nationalize America’s top banks, we can safely say that the U.S. is entering the third phase of its century-long trek toward a socialist regime of money and banking.
September 30, 2008 The InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
September  22, 2008 Investor Alert

Bankruptcies are Bullish, Bailouts are Bearish
Despite recent turmoil in the U.S. financial sector – the roots of which we’ve already explained and the downside of which we’ve previously anticipated – we reiterate our contrarian prediction...
September  11, 2008 The Capitalist Advisor McBama vs. America
September 5, 2008 Investor Alert

The Silly Panic Over U.S. Job Losses
The worrywarts forget that employment data always lag the business cycle and stock market performance by roughly a year.

August 29, 2008 Investor Alert The Recession That Was – and That Which Will Be
Anticipatory investors should place greater reliance on market prices than on economists, whether “mainstream” or otherwise.
August 22, 2008 Investor Alert About Those Crazy Aunts and Uncles Still Living in the Basement
They go by such sweet and innocent names: “Fannie Mae,” “Sallie Mae,” “Ginnie Mae,” “Freddie Mac.” They all live happily and comfortably, under a protective umbrella furnished by “Uncle Sam.” Their ancestry dates to the good old days of the 1930s, when they were benevolently delivered unto a yearning American electorate by a kindly elder named Franklin, who lived four terms in a big White House with his doting Eleanor, often comforting his needy, childlike citizens with “fireside chats” about...
August 15, 2008 The InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
August 7, 2008 Investment Focus The Coming Shift in Consumer Stocks
The steadier, more defensive Consumer Staples stocks have vastly outperformed the highly-cyclical Consumer Discretionary stocks in the past year, as we predicted, but it isn’t likely to recur in the coming year.
July 31, 2008 The InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
July 23, 2008 Investment Focus The Real Story on Crude Oil: Not Mere Speculation
We believe it’s only commonsensical to expect oil’s “price” in U.S. dollars to mainly reflect changes in the value of the paper dollar, not any alleged geological shortage of oil (as “peak oil” proponents claim) and not “speculation” (as a new report now confirms).
July 16, 2008 Investor Alert Mid-Year Review: So Far, So Good
July 11, 2008 The Capitalist Advisor Roots of the Latest Banking Crisis
Understanding the causes of the on-going residential mortgage debacle.
June 27, 2008 The Capitalist Advisor From Flat World To Free World
The world is retreating behind nationalistic walls, because the expanding economic freedom of recent decades was a response to the bankruptcy of communism and socialism, not on acceptance of capitalism as an ideal. Without such acceptance, recent political advances – despite the economic success they generated – are vulnerable to the new wave of anti-capitalist measures.
June 23, 2008 The InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
June 13, 2008 Investor Alert History as a Guide to Rebounds in the Broker-Dealer Stocks
The stocks of U.S. brokerage firms have plunged 40% in the past year -- four times worse than the bearish performance of the S&P 500. Many observers, having failed to forecast this plunge in the first place, now insist that brokers can’t return any time soon to robust growth and profitability; some claim that whole lines of business – like credit securitization – are gone forever.
June 9, 2008 The Capitalist Advisor A Few More Policy Assaults
The poor performance of U.S. equities this decade can be attributed to punitive government policies – and poor performance over the past year has been no exception.
May 30, 2008 Investor Alert Consumer Confidence Plunges – and That's Bullish
The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) reached a 16-year low this month -- soon after a similar indicator (of “consumer sentiment”) reached a 28-year low. In Figure One we plot the level of the CCI since its inception in late 1967 -- against seven shaded areas signifying U.S. recessions. Most economists, trained as “demand-side” Keynesians, believe “consumers” drive the economy. As such, the Keynesians tend to become bullish about forthcoming economic growth (and equities) when consumer confidence is inordinately high, and to become bearish about growth and stocks when (as today) confidence is abnormally low.
May 23, 2008 The InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
May 16, 2008 Investment Focus The Real Story on Crude Oil
The nominal oil price (in U.S. dollars) reached an all time record of $127/bbl earlier this week, up 31% so far in 2008 and 104% in the past year. Yesterday it closed near $125/barrel. Analysts at Goldman Sachs today reiterated their earlier view (with major qualifiers to their so-called “super-spike” theory) that oil could average $140/barrel in 2H2008 and as high as $200/barrel in the next two years (yet also fall to $60/barrel). As recently as January 2007, oil was just $50/barrel, and only a decade ago (December 1998) it was a mere $10/barrel.
May 7, 2008 Investment Focus Prospects for Equity Style Bets
Our model portfolio for U.S. equity style bets outperformed the passive benchmark by 1.69% points over the past year (see Table One), continuing a trend we’ve seen over the past five years.
April 30, 2008 Investor Alert Does the Fed's New Policy Stance Suggest a Bottom?
The Federal Reserve today once again cut its overnight, inter-bank rate, but at a regularly-scheduled meeting, and by just 25 basis points (to 2.00%); it also hinted that it might keep the rate steady for the foreseeable future.
April 25, 2008 The InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
April 18, 2008 Investor Alert In Search of a Bear Bottom
The U.S. stock market finally reached “bearish” territory a month ago, when the S&P 500 fell to an intra- day low of 1257 (on March 17th), or 20.2% below its intra-day high of 1576 about five months ago (on October 11th). Since then, over the past month, the S&P 500 has rebounded by 10% (to 1390), so many strategists and economists – especially those who didn’t predict the bear market in the first place – are now boldly prognosticating that a bottom was reached.
April 10, 2008 Investor Alert Profitable Mortgages Revisited
The low-quality sub-set of the U.S. residential mortgage market began to sour this time a year ago (spring 2007), even though broad stock-price indexes had yet to peak.
March 28, 2008 Investment Focus Technology Stocks are Not Immune
To the surprise of many, the worst performing sector in the U.S. S&P 500 so far this year has been Information Technology (-16%), not the headline-grabbing Financials sector (-14%).
March 24, 2008 The InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
March 12, 2008 Investor Alert The Fed’s Liquidity Schemes Boost Commodities, Not Equities
The Federal Reserve and top central banks abroad announced yet another scheme yesterday to inject “liquidity” into the world’s banking system, supposedly to cure the spreading credit crisis.
March 10, 2008 Investment Focus Asset Returns Amid Stagflation
Just as the U.S. is now suffering a recession, 1 it’s also suffering from ever higher rates of inflation – a combination known as “stagflation” – a vicious, policy induced phenomenon that was last seen during the recession of 1990-1991.
February 29, 2008 The InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
February 22, 2008 The Capitalist Advisor The Policy Mix Index: Washington Now Consumes $3 Trillion a Year
IFI’s Policy Mix Index (PMI) – a weighted grading system that assesses monetary policy, fiscal policy, trade policy, regulatory policy and foreign policy in the U.S. – is now less...
February 15, 2008 Investor Alert The Bond Insurance Bust
The top eight publicly-traded bond and mortgage insurers in the U.S. have lost 78% of their value – or $30 billion in market capitalization – over the past nine months....
January 31, 2008 The Capitalist Advisor The Stimulus Myth
In today's world Republicans and Democrats alike endorse big government, so whenever they agree whole-heartedly about some idea or policy – as they now do about an alleged “stimulus package” for the U.S. economy – investors should bet on near-term results being bearish.
January 28, 2008 Investment Focus Equity Bulls in Panic Mode
There have been plenty of forward-looking, market based warnings of this equity carnage, but as usual the equity bulls have blithely ignored or dismissed them. It was less than a year ago...
January  10, 2008 Investment Focus The Signaling Power of Stock Rallies Amid Early-Phase Yield-Curve Inversions
Historically, an inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve has signaled year-ahead trouble for U.S. stock prices and economic growth.
January  7, 2008 Investor Alert The Manufacturing and Profit Recessions
 Large sections of the U.S. economy have now fallen into recession – a result which our models first predicted about a year ago.
January 2008   Track Record 2007
January 2008   Outlook 2008

2007 Reports
 

Date Report Title
December 24, 2007 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
December 17, 2007 Investor Alert The Coming Bottom in U.S. Interest Rates
Evidence mounts that the U.S. has already entered a recession – a result we first predicted about a year ago...
December 10, 2007 The Capitalist Advisor Price Controls on Mortgage Rates
The Bush-Paulson scheme will abrogate millions of contracts, induce lenders to reduce sub-prime mortgage lending, and raise default and foreclosure rates in the sub-prime market.
December 3, 2007 Investment Focus As Growth Slows, Will the Commodity-Price Boom Abate?
Do commodity prices reflect inflation, or do they primarily move in tandem with the business cycle?
November 30, 2007 Investor Alert The Myth of Bullish Rate-Cutting
Despite some bullish stock-price rallies this year, we’ve remained steadfast in our bearishness...
November 21, 2007 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
November  12, 2007 Investor Alert Junk Bonds and Real Yields Head South
 ...Recent trends give us no reason to alter these initial forecasts.
November  5, 2007 Investment Focus Gold and Equities
The gold price today surpassed $800/ounce for the first time in nearly 28 years...
October 29, 2007 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
October 22, 2007 Investor Alert From Bad to Worse on Profits and Equities
By our estimates the U.S. economy is now entering the early stages of recession...
October 10, 2007 The Capitalist Advisor The Greatest Story Ever Told
Rand was more than a superlative writer; she was also an illuminating philosopher and history’s greatest champion of laissez-- faire capitalism.
October 5, 2007 Investor Alert Rising Unemployment Isn't Bullish for Stocks
Employment in the U.S. tends to be a lagging indicator – useful for purposes of confirming where the economy has been – but it also provides hints of where the economy is going, because...
September 28, 2007 Investor Alert The Dollar in Debasement
Inflation is by no means a “thing of the past.”
September 24, 2007 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
September 18, 2007 Investor Alert When ‘Corrections” Degenerate Into “Bear Markets”
Before long, the partying bulls will be crying in their beer again.
September 7, 2007 Investor Alert The Race to Hoard T-Bills – and What It Means for Stocks
August 27, 2007 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
August 20, 2007 Investment Focus Can Corporate Junk Bonds Get . . . Junkier ?
Fed “liquidity injections” should not be construed as a reason to become bullish on junk bonds.
August 13, 2007 Investor Alert The Quiddity of Liquidity
A half-dozen of the world’s major central banks – including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan, and the Reserve Bank of Australia – injected $300 billion of “liquidity” into national banking systems last week, in a supposed “rescue” effort to prevent an impending “credit crisis.”
August 6, 2007 Investor Alert When the Financial Sector Falters
The Financials sector of the S&P 500 equity price index, which comprises 20% of the total market capitalization of S&P 500 firms, has plunged nearly 13% so far this year, compared to the S&P 500’s meager gain of 1%. The Financials sector now joins Consumer Discretionary as one of the two sectors that have declined, year-to-date, in absolute terms.
July 31, 2007 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
July 20, 2007 Investor Alert The Fed Downgrades Growth – Just Like the Last Recession
The Fed causes recessions - but never predicts them.
July 16, 2007 The Capitalist Advisor The Path to Censorship and Martial Law in America
As of May 9th, U.S. Presidents have the power to impose a dictatorship in America.
July 10, 2007 Investor Alert Inflated Profit Expectations
Of course, history teaches that stock investors tend to look forward, not backward; they anticipate earnings that will be generated about nine months in advance. Nevertheless...
June 30, 2007 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
June 22, 2007 Investor Alert When Energy Stocks Lead the Way
The Energy sub-sector of the S&P 500 equity price index has boomed by 37% over the past year, outperforming the broader index by nearly 16% points...
June 15, 2007 Investment Focus Will the End of the Yield-Curve's Inversion Be Bullish for U.S. Stocks?
When this year began we were mildly bearish about U.S. equity performance in 2007, as our forecasting model projected that the...
June 8, 2007 Investor Alert The Implications of Rising Bond Yields
The 10-year U.S. T-Bond yield has risen by 53 basis points over the past three months, from 4.59% to 5.12%, while the 3-month T-Bill yield has declined by 33 basis points, from 5.10% to 4.77%. As a result, the U.S. yield-curve spread – the difference between the T-Bond yield and T-Bill yield – has shifted from being negative (-51 basis points) in early March to being positive (35 basis points), as shown in the nearby table. What caused this dramatic shift in yields and what are its implications?
May 27, 2007 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
May 16, 2007 The Capitalist Advisor Where the Money Is
When the famed U.S. bank robber Willie Sutton was asked why he robbed banks, his retort was both commonsensical and unvarnished: “That’s where the money is.” And that’s not a bad place to start for any investor who wants to understand why the powerful head of some U.S. Congressional Committee in Washington, D.C. has launched yet another investigation of the wealthy and big business.
May 9, 2007 Investment Focus Should Investors Be Encouraged by a Declining Trade Deficit?
We address this issue now because the U.S. trade deficit has, in fact...
May 2, 2007 Investment Focus Would Fed Rate Cuts Necessarily Boost Equities?
April 23, 2007 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
April 16, 2007 Investment Focus Which Type of Consumer Stock Will Outperform
April 9, 2007 Investment Focus Should Equity Investors Be Encouraged by a Low Jobless Rate?
April 2, 2007 Investor Alert The Market Impact of Appeasement
Some of the more short-sighted Wall Street strategists seem to prefer anything but war. For them “peace at any price” is the soothing balm markets require to perform well.
March 26, 2007 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
March 19, 2007 Investment Focus Will Mortgage Market Turmoil Hurt Mortgage-Backed Securities?
Even as U.S. “sub-prime” mortgage lenders suffer setbacks, fixed-income investors in the U.S. should take advantage of the growing hysteria over the debacle and buy mortgage-backed securities.
March 15, 2007 Investment Focus The Yen Carry Trade: Bearish for the Dollar?
Despite the dollar's recent dip in foreign exchange markets, we expect the greenback to resume its ascent against major currencies -- including the Japanese yen -- during the balance of 2007.
March 5, 2007 Investor Alert China's Alleged Influence on U.S. Equity Performance
As we’ve been expecting, U.S. stock prices are down for the year...
February  28, 2007 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
February  22, 2007 Investor Alert Prospects for U.S. Bond Yields
We expect a decline in interest rates along the entire maturity spectrum of the U.S. Treasury yield curve in 2007, with greater declines coming in the short-term end of the spectrum compared to the intermediate and longer-term portions of the curve.
February  15, 2007 Investor Alert Signs of Economic Weakness
Fed chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the U.S. Congress this week that he was more worried about inflation than economic weakness; therefore, he said, even though he and his colleagues would keep the Fed Funds rate unchanged for the foreseeable future, they’d continue to lean toward further rate hikes.
February  7, 2007 Investment Focus Inverted Yield Curves as Bull Market Killers – and Bear Market Predictors
Equity bull markets in the U.S. don't die of natural causes; they’re usually murdered by Fed officials.
January  31, 2007 The Capitalist Advisor The Policy Mix Index: The Bearish Tilt of Washington’s Surge and Splurge
Contributing most to the PMI's deterioration since last summer has been the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hikes, even in the face of declines in long-term bond yields – to the point where...
January 2007   Track Record 2006
January 2007   Outlook 2007

 
Date Report Title
December 29, 2006 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
December 22, 2006 Investment Focus

How Valuation Can Mitigate Otherwise Warranted Bearishness
Historically, an inverted Treasury yield curve (which we’ve had since last July) has spelled trouble for the year-ahead performance of U.S. equities and the U.S. economic growth rate. But while we now expect...
December 15, 2006 Investment Focus

Is the Housing Sector Predictive?
As we expected, the U.S. residential housing sector performed badly this year. Whether we consult the data on new home construction permits, housing starts, old and new home sales, median house prices, real residential investment spending or the performance of homebuilder stocks relative to the S&P 500, we find that the news this year has been uniformly grim. But does the housing sector’s performance over the past year have any predictive value?
December 7, 2006 Investor Alert

The Recession of 2007
The last U.S. recession occurred in 2001, after Fed rate hikes inverted the Treasury yield curve...
November 22, 2006 Investment Focus Does 'Sideline Cash' Predict U.S. Equities?
Today's equity bulls, no doubt heartened by the recent rally in stock prices, continue to offer various theories in support of a bullish stance. One is the so-called “sideline cash” theory...
November 8, 2006 Investor Alert How Punitive Fed Policy Can Trump the Benefits of Divided Government
Many people (usually the advocates of government activism) decry “gridlock,” but all else equal, over the past fifty years, divided government in Washington has been a positive thing for investors.
October 29, 2006 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
October 16, 2006 The Capitalist Advisor Betting Markets Say GOP Will Lose the House
As we’ve seen in past U.S. elections, betting markets – where people put there own money on the line – tend to be much more accurate than opinion polls when it comes to forecasting results
October 11, 2006 Investor Alert North Korea's Nukes and the Market’s Rally
The Bush Administration this week lost any remaining credibility in foreign policy.
September 29, 2006 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
September 21, 2006 Investor Alert The Policy Mix Index: Yield-Curve Inversion Signals Trouble
IFI’s Policy Mix Index (PMI) – a weighted grading system assessing monetary policy, fiscal policy, trade policy, regulatory policy and foreign policy – has declined to -15.0 (Table One, page 2), versus readings of ...
September 11, 2006 The Capitalist Advisor

Why America Can't Win Wars Anymore
Over the past five years we’ve observed something even more horrific than what we witnessed five years ago today, when Islamic terrorists sponsored by Islamic regimes in the Middle East murdered 3,000 innocents by using three commercial airplanes to destroy the World Trade Center and part of the Pentagon. Why more horrific?
August 31, 2006 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
August 21, 2006 Investor Alert

Rationalizing Recession
Few analysts at the time saw recession as likely in the foreseeable future and none would dare say (publicly) that the Fed might deliberately trash the economy, since most believe the Fed always knows (and does) best.
August 14, 2006 Investor Alert

Two Cease-Fires -- Neither of Which is Bullish
In the past week investors have had to assess the likely market impact of two “cease-fires.”
August 7, 2006 Investment Focus

Predicting U.S. Equities: Interest Rates Matter More than Earnings
When it comes to forecasting U.S. equity performance, most analysts, strategists and economists focus on two key variables: earnings and interest rates...
July 28, 2006 The Capitalist Advisor

Reflections on a Quarter-Century in Business
I walked forty blocks south, from my tiny apartment on Manhattan’s upper east side to my first professional job as a management trainee for Manufacturers Hanover Trust Company at 350 Park Avenue.
July 14, 2006 The Capitalist Advisor

Israel Fights Back, But the U.S. Keeps Appeasing
 No investor can afford to ignore geo-political trends, especially those that destroy portfolios.
July 7, 2006 Investment Focus Forecasting Shifts in U.S. Corporate Profit Margins
As we enter the latest U.S. “earnings season” (with corporate reports of second-quarter results, through June 30th) and see new estimates of year-ahead profit performance, investors should be aware that
June 30, 2006 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
June 21, 2006 The Capitalist Advisor Bill Gates: Triumph and Tragedy
Microsoft’s co-founder and chairman Bill Gates announced last week that as of July 2008 he’ll no longer work full-time at the firm; thereafter he’ll devote most of his time (and wealth) to a philanthropic foundation he established in 2000. As he’s been doing in recent years, Gates will shift further away from creating wealth toward giving it away.
June 13, 2006 Investor Alert Technical Fouls – by Bulls in Denial
Stock bulls are in denial about the Fed’s blatant sabotage.
June 7, 2006 Investment Focus Forecasting Commodities
How can investors best forecast and profit from forthcoming changes in commodity prices?
May 31, 2006 The Capitalist Advisor Paulson and the Dollar
Earlier this month we showed why a potential cessation of further Fed rate hiking later this year won’t necessarily be...
May 25, 2006 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
May 15, 2006 Investor Alert The Beginning of the End
The bull market in U.S. equities was nice while it lasted – but our market-based signals indicate that it’s coming to an end – if, indeed, it hasn’t ended already.
April 28, 2006 Investment Focus Anticipating Shifts in T-Bill Rates, T-Bond Yields and the Yield-Curve Spread
This study shows how a set of forward-looking market prices forecasts (one-year ahead) T-Bill rates, T-Bond yields and the Treasury yield-curve spread (defined as the difference between T-Bond yields and T-Bill rates, as reflected in the shape of the yield curve, whether it be steep, flat or inverted).
April 25, 2006 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
April 14, 2006 Investment Focus Forecasting Fed Rate Moves
This study illustrates how a set of important, forward-looking market prices reliably forecasts (one-year ahead) Federal Reserve policy -- which basically entails shifts in the overnight Fed Funds rate.
April 7, 2006 Investment Focus Predicting U.S. Sector Performance
This report shows how a set of five important, forward-looking market prices forecast absolute and relative stock performance by the ten main U.S. sectors.
March 31, 2006 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
March 28, 2006 Investor Alert The Long and Short of U.S. Interest-Rate Shifts
Today’s rate hike by the Fed -- it's fifteenth since June 2004 and one that brings the overnight Fed Funds rate up to 4.75% -- has now definitively inverted the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Below we remind investors that a yield curve inversion presents a...
March 18, 2006 Investor Alert The Bank of Japan's Pending Rate Hikes
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced last week that over the coming months it will cease its five-year policy (begun in March 2001) of a zero short-term (overnight) interest rate and “quantitative easing.”
March 9, 2006 The Capitalist Advisor The Year of Living Dangerously
Investors confused about the seemingly awkward performance of markets year-to-date should consider the many ways Washington has injected dangerous elements into the nation’s political economy.
February 27, 2006 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
February 24, 2006 Investment Focus Global Yield Curves and Economic Growth
The currently-inverted U.S. yield curve signals a ...
February 17, 2006 Investment Focus Global Yield Curves and Equity Performance
There's no better leading indicator of yearahead equity performance and economic growth than the local government yield curve – especially when measured as the spread between the 10-year bond yield and 3-month bill rate.
February 10, 2006 The Capitalist Advisor The Next Fed Head: Part 2
It doesn't take long for markets to gauge the likely impact of newly-installed central planners.
January 31, 2006 The Capitalist Advisor Greenspan's Record: Better Than Predecessors, Not As Good as Gold
Since today is Alan Greenspan’s last day as Federal Reserve chairman, it’s an appropriate time to assess his 18½-year track record – and what it has meant for investors. Our review can also serve as a guide to those trying to assess the likely impact of the next Fed head.1 Contrary to popular assessments, we find that Greenspan’s track record falls well short of what it should have been.
January  2006   Outlook 2006
January  2006   Track Record 2005
January 6, 2006 Investor Alert The Fed Wants a Recession
One need only be a fact-oriented realist to know that Fed officials invariably hike short-term rates until they inflict widespread pain, whether in the form of stock and bond price crashes, corporate bankruptcies, house-price plunges or recessions. But as before, today few people can make themselves believe it.


2005
December 31, 2005 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
December 23, 2005 Investment Focus Dubious Dow Theory
Dow Theory suggests a bullish stance on U.S. stocks for 2006. But the evidence supports a precisely opposite stance.
December 16, 2005 Investor Alert What Gold Portends
Last week we examined the likely future direction of the gold price – one of the most important leading indicators (besides the Treasury yield curve) in our market- based forecasting system...
December 9, 2005 Investment Focus The Meaning of Gold at $500
 The purchasing power of gold – what an ounce of it buys in terms of tangible goods – has been relatively stable for over three centuries.1 That’s why, throughout human history, civilized nations converged on gold (and gold-convertible instruments like currency and checks) as money, for gold has always served as a stable and reliable yardstick. Gold’s relative stability also explains why England and America – the two nations most associated with the Industrial Revolution – were on the gold standard for most of their history.
November 22, 2005 Investment Focus The Business Cycle, Inflation and U.S. Sector Performance
 Two market-price signals provide reliable forecasts of the U.S. business cycle and inflation climate...
November 15, 2005 Investor Alert The Outlook for U.S. Sector Profits
 The 'consensus' outlook of analysts and strategists on Wall Street is for a rise of 12% in S&P 500 profits over the coming year.
November 7, 2005 The Capitalist Advisor The Next Fed Head – Part 1
Two weeks have passed since President Bush nominated Ben Bernanke to replace Alan Greenspan as chairman of the dozen-or-so central planners ruling Washington’s central bank – i.e., the money monopolist known affectionately as the Federal Reserve.
October 31, 2005 InterMarket Forecaster The "Peak Oil" Thesis: Supply or Price?
As Yogi Berra once said, “it's deja vu all over again." As in the late 1970s, when the oil price nearly tripled in four years (from $11/barrel at the end of 1975 to $32/barrel at the end of 1979), the near-tripling of the oil price during the past four years (from $21/barrel at the end of 2001 to $61/ barrel more recently) has led to a growing gang of doomsayers claiming the world is “running out of oil.” In the 1970s it was called “limits to growth.” Now it’s called “peak oil theory.”
October 21, 2005 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
October 14, 2005 Investment Focus The Japan That Few Predicted
 Few economists or strategists predicted the strong economic growth or robust equity gains witnessed in Japan in recent years; fewer still projected that Japan might outperform other major economies and stock markets – as it certainly has.
October 7, 2005 The Capitalist Advisor The Policy Mix Index: Government Burdens Mount
IFI's Policy Mix Index (PMI) – a weighted grading system assessing monetary policy, fiscal policy, trade policy, regulatory policy and foreign policy – has declined to 13.0 (Table One, page 2), versus readings of 30.5 (February 2005) and 47.0 (June 2003).
September 30 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
September 23 Investment Focus Fed Policy and Equity Valuation: The Joint Impact on Future Returns
With persistent attention focused on yet more hurricanes in the U.S. gulf coast, there’s little recognition of the fact that man-made disasters can inflict far more harm on the economy, wealth creation and portfolio performance. The best current example of this is the Federal Reserve’s interest- rate policy, which continues moving on a bearish path.
September 9 The Capitalist Advisor Unionization's Shift to Government
Not capitalist 'injustice' but Marxist dogma has been the main fuel for labor unionism for most of the past century, especially in Europe but also to some extent in the U.S.
September 2 Investor Alert Disasters: Natural and Man-Made
Insurers currently estimate that Hurricane Katrina – which swept through the U.S. Gulf Coast this week and submerged 80% New Orleans under water -- will cost as much as $75 billion. If so, it will be the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history (using inflation adjusted numbers). As we’ll see, the ten largest hurricanes in U.S. history (since 1900) were followed by an average decline of 3.1% in U.S. equity prices one year later (Table Three, page 3); but the bulk of that decline is explained not by the hurricanes per se but by Fed policy – i.e., a man-made disaster.
August 26 Investment Focus The Impact on Stocks When the Fed "Chases" Oil-Price Spikes
Taking all episodes (since 1967) together we find – contrary to conventional wisdom – that a rising oil price alone has not been bearish for U.S. equities.
August 19 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
August 15 Investment Focus Interest-Rate Shifts Prior to Recessions
The U.S. has suffered eight recessions in the past fifty years, each of which was signaled by an inverted Treasury yield curve – by the rare condition of bond yields being below bill yields.
August 4 Investor Alert The Return of (and On) the 30-Year T-Bond
As expected, the U.S. Treasury Department announced yesterday that it would again issue 30-year bonds, after having suspended new issues in October 2001...
July 29 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
July 25 Investor Alert The Market Impact of Currency Manipulations in China and Malaysia
Consider what just happened (last week) with the currencies issued by the governments in China and Malaysia
July 15 The Capitalist Advisor The Mythical "Savings Glut" -- and the Likely Policy Response
Equity investors can benefit by understanding why the real bond yield is low, whether it’s likely to remain low or whether it might rise again.
July 8 Investor Alert Market Messages Amid Terrorism in London
World-wide market reaction to yesterday's terrorism in London wasn’t nearly as negative as many analysts expected it might be. What then might be gleaned from these market messages?
June 30 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
June 24 The Capitalist Advisor Another Nail in the Coffin for Property Rights
The U.S. Supreme Court yesterday ruled that it's perfectly legitimate for a local government to seize private property, pay a below-market price and hand it over to another private citizen or company that claims it can do more with the property -- i.e., better develop it and pay more taxes to the local government.
June 17 Investor Alert Will the Yield Curve Invert? Sir Alan's Attempt at a Parting Blow
President Bush says he’d like to break the rules and extend Sir Alan’s expiration date; isn’t it nice to see Mr. Bush working so hard to make the world safe for monetary monarchy?
June 10 The Capitalist Advisor The SEC: Consequential and Destructive: Can Christopher Cox Make It Less So?
An "excessive accumulation of complicated laws" surely characterizes the U.S. in recent years, especially laws violating the freedom of corporate executives, investment bankers and CPAs. The regulatory-litigation craze of recent years has sought to criminalize business mistakes and create scapegoats to deflect public anger and criticism away from the government policy-makers who actually caused the bear market of 2000-2002.
May 27 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
May 23 Investment Focus Whither Commodity Prices?
Historically, commodities have outperformed more-traditional asset classes (stocks, bonds and bills) -- and usually in consecutive- year periods -- far more frequently than most people realize.
May 16 Investor Alert Can the Dollar's Rally Persist?
Since the year began the U.S. dollar has appreciated between 2% and 5% against major currencies and by roughly 9% against gold. Can this rally persist?
May 6 Investment Focus Is That It For Corporate Bonds?
After underperforming U.S. Treasury bonds materially for roughly six years (1997-2002, inclusive), corporate bonds in the U.S. -- whether one considers investment-grade, high yield or convertible bonds -- have outperformed T-Bonds significantly since the end of 2002...
April 28 Investment Focus The Bearish Inflation Premium
History makes clear that inflation is bearish for stocks. Yet many economists and strategists have difficulty even defining inflation, let alone measuring or forecasting it.
April 25 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
April 8 Investor Alert CAPEX and Sector Performance Re-Visited
 The rate of growth in capital expenditures (CAPEX) by U.S. businesses will likely decelerate by half over the coming year -– and as we explain below, this deceleration will likely influence the relative performance of S&P 500 sectors.
March 31 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
March 21 Investor Alert Are There Parallels to the 1930s?
In re-visiting the ten-year periods following these two prior episodes we'll try to ascertain whether the S&P 500, over the coming five years, might share their fate -- that is, might suffer a weak and halting recovery followed by still further declines.
March 14 Investor Alert Is That It For Small-Cap Stocks?
 Is this the year the small-cap winning streak comes to an end?
March 7 Investor Alert Stability, 'Excess' and Conundrums
We will see yet another yield-curve inversion before Greenspan finally leaves the Fed next January?
February 25 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
February 16 Investor Alert The 'Mythical Housing Bubble' Re-Visited
Thirty months ago we told investors to ignore widespread claims about a U.S. 'housing bubble.'
February 9 The Capitalist Advisor The Policy Mix Index: The Fed Slowly Adds Its Poison
IFI's Policy Mix Index (PMI) -- a weighted grading system assessing monetary policy, fiscal policy, trade policy, regulatory policy and foreign policy-- has declined to 30.5 compared to a prior reading of 47.0.
February 2 The Capitalist Advisor Capitalism's Greatest Champion
Today marks the centennial of the birth of Ayn Rand -- capitalism's greatest intellectual champion.
January 31 Investor Alert Does January Predict the Markets Full-Year Performance?
The S&P 500 fell 2.53% this month. Therefore, says a popular investment newsletter, be afraid be very afraid because 2005 necessarily will be a bear market for U.S. stocks.
January 22   Outlook 2005
January 17 InterMarket Forecaster Track Record 2004
January 10 Investment Focus Will U.S. Stocks Keep Trailing, Globally?
From a long-term perspective, it's indisputable that U.S. equities have underperformed a diversified basket of equities traded in developed markets abroad. Consider Morgan Stanley's EAFE index, which is currently comprised of stocks from twenty-one major markets abroad...

2004		    
December 27 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
December 22 Investment Focus How Bond Managers Can Profit from Silver & Gold
The silver price has risen 25% over the past year -- one of the best-performing assets. For silver investors the precious metal certainly has given 'pleasure on earth' in 2004; the same can be said for gold, which has risen 10% in 2004 and nearly 38% since April 2003 (surpassing even the S&P 500's gain of 35%). Can other investors gain by commodities? Yes.
December 13 Investment Focus Note to U.S. Equity Investors: Deflation is Bullish, While Inflation is Bearish
 Many economists and investment strategists continue to preach that deflation is 'bearish' for corporate profits (due to some alleged lack of 'pricing power') as well as for stock returns, and to insist that inflation somehow can boost profitability, 'stimulate' the economy and deliver above-average stock gains. But the precise opposite is true -- and that's a contrarian insight from which any astute equity investor can profit.
December 8 The Capitalist Advisor Microsoft's Dividends Punctuate the End of a Wonderful Era
 Microsoft's new policy of delivering a greater portion of value through income instead of through capital gain marks the end of a wonderful era of rapid growth for the company -- and for U.S. technology stocks generally.
November 26 Investor Alert Home Grown Financial Terrorism
 An advertisement on talk-radio the other day implored listeners to buy commodities in anticipation of a huge plunge in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar. The ad claimed the dollar would plunge due to a surreptitious assault on the U.S. financial system by foreign terrorists.
November 19 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
November 12 Investor Alert So-Called Earnings Disappointments
In a 'dull stock' stock market, such as we've seen this year, it's common for bottom-up analysts, market strategists and financial journalists to blame the dullness on 'earnings disappointments' -- to claim that the market's languor is due to profit growth rates that have been (or are expected to be) weak or else falling short of initial expectations.
November 5 Investor Alert More Than a Mere Relief Rally
Investors should expect this rally to persist and should bet that it will become more than a temporary 'relief' rally.
October 29 The Capitalist Advisor Bush Blows a Big Lead -- and the Stock Market Takes Note
Subjective polling continues to suggest a 'dead heat' in the U.S. presidential race, but objective market prices indicate that President Bush will likely be re-elected next Tuesday. Yet the president has blown a huge lead over Mr. Kerry and as a result, U.S. stock prices have suffered.
October 22 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
October 15 Investment Focus The Usual Aftermath of Dull Markets
A venerable Wall Street adage tells investors to 'never short a dull market.'
October 8 Investment Focus The Yield Curve, Credit Spreads and Corporate Bond Returns
As we expected, corporate credit spreads in the U.S. have narrowed in the past year and corporate bond returns have surpassed Treasury bond returns. Can this happen again in the coming year?
September 30 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
September 18 The Capitalist Advisor Money on the Line Favors Bush -- and a GOP Congress
 There seems to be some question about the current status of the U.S. presidential race between George Bush and John Kerry. Some accounts claim that the race is tied. But don’t bet on that – because investors sure aren’t. Which “investors,” specifically?
September 11 The Capitalist Advisor

Three Years and Counting
The abysmal U.S. war effort has translated into abysmal U.S. investment performance.
September 4 The Capitalist Advisor The Basics of Inter-Market Forecasting
Four years ago this month IFI launched the inaugural issue of The InterMarket Forecaster, our monthly report on market-price signals and probable year-ahead investment returns. We began our September 2000 issue with a brief review of the basic foundation of the inter-market forecasting approach -- and re-issue it below as a 'refresher' for both old clients and new.
August 30 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
August 20 Investor Alert The Secrets of Reagan's Success (Part III): Foreign Policy
The economic-financial prosperity of the 1990s would not have been possible without the prowealth policy foundation established by President Ronald Reagan and his supply-side advisers in the 1980s...
August 13 Investor Alert Oil's Impact on Japanese Equities
What about the impact of oil-price spikes on markets in countries like Japan which rely even more heavily on imported oil than does the U.S.?
August 6 Investor Alert Dispelling Some Crude Myths About Oil's Real Impact
 Market strategists and economists are beginning to panic about the recent run-up in the oil price. But there's no reason to panic.
July 29 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
July 21 Investor Alert When Will Stock Multiples Expand Again?
The valuation assigned by investors to corporate earnings in the U.S. has declined significantly over the past three years, following a seven-year period of rising valuation beginning in late-1994.
July 14 Investment Focus Corporate Yield Spreads and U.S. Equity Performance
 Spreads among yields on corporate stocks, bonds and bills (commercial paper) reliably forecast year-ahead stock-price performance. In this report we focus on the forecasting power embedded in 1) the spread between yields on corporate bonds and commercial paper and 2) the spread between yields on corporate stocks and bonds.
July 7 Investor Alert Treasury Chickens Come Home to Roost -- at the Fed
A week ago Fed officials embarked on yet another rate-hiking episode, to the applause of most economists and strategists. These Fed apologists either do not know how much damage rate hikes can inflict or else they know it but don't care about bearish investment results.
June 30 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
June 21 The Capitalist Advisor The Secrets of Reagan's Success (Part II): Economic Policy
Contrary to the propaganda, Reagan was no dunce and his policy successes were no accident. Interestingly, Reagan was the only U.S. president to have majored in economics in college...
June 11 The Capitalist Advisor The Secrets of Reagan's Success (Part I): The Role of Government
The undeniable success of Ronald Reagan in economic and foreign policy reflected three crucial virtues of the man...
June 3 The Capitalist Advisor World Opinion Be Damned
It is a testament to the perverse priorities of our politicians and journalists that the biggest American outcry over Abu Ghraib has been not about the gruesome decapitation of American Nicholas Berg by terrorists, but about the fact that many Arabs and Europeans are mad at us. "We are the most hated nation in the world," laments Ted Kennedy, "as a result of this disastrous policy in the prisons."
May 31 InterMarket Forecaster Bravo for Grasso
One of the great tragedies of recent years -- one which has cost investors dearly -- has been the utterly craven moral stance of America's top executives. Most of them have been moral cowards -- unwilling to defend their freedom, their rights and their lavish pay. Most have/ been cowed into believing that they are guilty for the vast destruction in shareholder wealth that we've seen since 2000. In fact this wealth was destroyed by egregious acts of government failure-- by trust-busting, Fed rate hikes, a national 'defense' so porous that it permitted the destruction of 3,000 innocent lives and the World Trade Center, by tariffs, a shoddy U.S. dollar and the partial nationalizations of accounting, the NYSE and corporate governance...
May 27 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
May 14 Investor Alert U.S. Equity Performance Surrounding Fed Rate Hikes
How have U.S. equities performed in the months prior to and during historical episodes of Fed rate-hiking? Specifically, what have been the typical returns registered on such equity 'styles' as large-cap or small-cap stocks and value or growth stocks? Have the returns depended at all on the magnitude of Fed rate hikes or the initial shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve? What can this history tell us about likely equity returns surrounding the next round of Fed rate hikes that's soon to begin? We answer these questions below, after scrutinizing the history surrounding ten distinct episodes of Fed ratehiking since 1970.
May 9 The Capitalist Advisor Market Language versus Fedspeak
The essence of the Fed's opaque and arbitrary approach was best captured by Fed chairman Alan Greenspan in 1999, when in testimony before the U.S. Congress he said...
April 30 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
April 28 Investor Alert Will the Fed (or China) Stop (or Reverse) the Commodity-Price Boom?
Just as central planners at the Federal Reserve are preparing to hike short-term interest rates in order to slow the growth rate of the U.S. economy, so central planners in Beijing are preparing policies to slow China's growth. What impact will these joint, anti-growth policies have on commodities? Will the multi-year commodity-price boom come to an abrupt end?
April 24 Investor Alert Whither the U.S. Dollar?
The U.S. dollar has been strengthening recently amid the Federal Reserve's preparation for future rate hikes, reversing a relatively small part of its massive depreciation since early 2000. Where is the dollar headed in the coming months and year?
April 15 Investor Alert U.S. Treasury Bombs
When the U.S. Treasury Secretary spends more than two years promoting a weak dollar on foreign exchange markets, in time that only undermines the value of the other instruments he issues: Treasury bonds.
April 8 Capitalist Advisor One Rational Juror
Honest capitalists (investors) and entrepreneurs (CEOs) everywhere should be gratified by the latest mistrial in the Tyco International case.
March 19 Investment Focus Investing in Rogue Outsourcers
What is it that makes firms rogues in the eyes of Dobbs and traitors in the eyes of Kerry?
March 12 Investor Alert Recent Trends Likely to Reverse
Some of the most profitable investment decisions turn out to be those made on a contrarian basis. But by 'contrarian' we do not mean an investor who reflexively does the opposite of what everyone else is doing because everyone else is doing it. In our view that's not being contrarian at all; it's merely another form of conformity -- of blindly following others. The true contrarian is the one who sees the world as it really is; he trusts what he knows and retains his vision of the future despite inane bombardments from clueless commentators...
March 8 Capitalist Advisor Little Guys v. Martha Stewart
With corporate profits soaring, interest rates still at historic lows and the dollar beginning to stabilize lately, we believe that it's far-fetched to claim U.S. stocks have performed poorly since mid-January 1 for any reason other than the ominous legal implications of the Martha Stewart trial and conviction. In our view...
February 27 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
February 20 Capitalist Advisor Producers in Chains, Parasites in Charge
Economists continue to fret about the lack of job growth in the U.S. and firms -- increasing resort to 'outsourcing' (hiring labor in nations abroad, instead of in the U.S.).
February 13 Investment Focus Pensions, Profits and Equities: From Vicious to Virtuous Circle
In the three-year period 2000-2002 a vicious circle developed in which stocks plunged (thereby reducing the value of pension assets) and T-Bond yields plunged (thereby raising the present value of future pension obligations). The result...
February 7   The Latest Voodoo from the Currency Cranks
The G-7 finance ministers just finished meeting in Boca Raton and agreed jointly (once again) not to adopt any policies that might stop (or reverse) the on-going depreciation in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar. As we've been predicting since March 2002...
January 31   Fed Rampage Revisited
Fed rate hikes are bearish for stocks, bonds and the economy; but as we'll stress, the...
January 22   Outlook 2004
January 15   Track Record 2003 (pdf)
January 5 Capitalist Advisor Saysian Economics: Part II
We would commit a disservice to capitalists (investors) -- and an injustice to political economy -- were we to allow 2003 to pass without commemorating and celebrating the bicentennial of the greatest economics book ever written: A Treatise on Political Economy (1803). The book was authored by the man who we consider (not coincidentally) to be history's greatest political economist: Jean-Baptiste Say (1767-1832).

2003		    
December 31 Capitalist Advisor Saysian Economics: Part I
We would commit a disservice to capitalists (investors) -- and an injustice to political economy -- were we to allow 2003 to pass without commemorating and celebrating the bicentennial of the greatest economics book ever written: A Treatise on Political Economy (1803). The book was authored by the man who we consider (not coincidentally) to be history's greatest political economist: Jean-Baptiste Say (1767-1832).
December 29 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
December 15 Capitalist Advisor The US War on Drugs: Medicare and Health Care Stocks
What are investors to make of recently enacted U.S. legislation to empower the federal government to tax and borrow $450 billion over the decade (starting January 2006) -- and another $1.3 trillion in the decade thereafter -- so seniors can buy more prescription drugs?
December 5 Capitalist Advisor A Widening Trade Deficit: Bearish, Neutral or Bullish?
Since the U.S. trade deficit will continue widening, it might be of interest to know if this will be a positive or negative factor for investors.
November
30		 Capitalist Advisor Thanks Are Due to the U.S. Military -- Despite a Bush-League War
As Thanksgiving week draws to a close, investors have good reason to be thankful for the stupendous efforts of the U.S. military in fighting terrorist regimes.
November 24 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
November
15		 Investment Focus The Demolition Team of Klein, Spitzer & Putin
History demonstrates that investors -- i.e., capitalists -- secure optimal portfolio returns in a context in which private property is protected and the rule of law is respected.
November 7 Investment Focus Is A Commodity-Price Boom Bullish?
What becomes of traditional (financial) asset classes and the economy, especially in the aftermath of a large rise in commodity prices? Is the rise bullish for them?
October 31 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
October 17 Investor Alert Has the Gold Price Peaked?
Investors in financial assets who ignore gold and commodities do so at the risk of underperforming...
October 11 The Capitalist Advisor Potential Aftershocks From California's Political Earthquake
Historically, political trends in California, for good or ill, have exhibited a curious tendency to reverberate throughout the U.S., with...
October 10 Investor Alert A Stronger Yen is Bullish for Japan
Conventional opinion continues to insist that the yen's appreciation on foreign exchange markets somehow is --damaging-- to Japan's economy, profits and stock prices. But IFI has shown that...
September 29 The Capitalist Advisor The Probacy of Probes
Only widespread government policies that necessarily affect thousands of businesses and millions of investors can cause such widespread harm.
September 25 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
September 11 The Capitalist Advisor America's Failing War Effort: A Report Card
Every astute investor should be concerned about America's foreign policy and its war effort, especially about the ways each is likely to affect -- for good or ill -- portfolio performance.
October 31 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
October 17 The Capitalist Advisor Has the Gold Price Peaked?
Investors in financial assets who ignore gold and commodities do so at the risk of underperforming...
October 11 The Capitalist Advisor Potential Aftershocks From California's Political Earthquake
Historically, political trends in California, for good or ill, have exhibited a curious tendency to reverberate throughout the U.S., with...
October 10 The Capitalist Advisor A Stronger Yen is Bullish for Japan
Conventional opinion continues to insist that the yen's appreciation on foreign exchange markets somehow is --damaging-- to Japan's economy, profits and stock prices. But IFI has shown that...
September 29 The Capitalist Advisor The Probacy of Probes
Only widespread government policies that necessarily affect thousands of businesses and millions of investors can cause such widespread harm.
September 25 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
September 11 The Capitalist Advisor America's Failing War Effort
Every astute investor should be concerned about America's foreign policy and its war effort, especially about the ways each is likely to affect -- for good or ill -- portfolio performance.
September 5 The Capitalist Advisor The Rulers and the Ruled
The world suffers under regulatory states of every variety.
August 31 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
August 25 The Capitalist Advisor An Intellectual Power Outage: The Sequel
August 18 The Capitalist Advisor An Intellectual Power Outage
The unenlightened energy policy of the U.S. is solely responsible for the numerous blackouts of recent years, including the outage last week, which plunged eight states (plus parts of Canada) and fifty million people into darkness -- and into an uncivilized, non-industrial existence.
August 7 Investment Focus Rising Bond Yields: Bullish or Bearish for Stocks?
Give the recent, sharp rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields, many strategists have come to assume that it is (or will be) bearish for U.S. stocks.
July 30 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
July 22 Investment Focus Secular Bear Markets
Secular bear markets in equities -- multi-year periods of stagnating or declining stock prices-- are the bane of every investor. Although equities tend to deliver the best risk-adjusted returns (versus other assets) over the very long term (many decades),  investors can waste many years of their lives with no investment gains if they become mired in a secular bear market.
July 10 Investor Alert Sector Forecasts Yielding Investor Profits
 In the nine months since U.S. stock prices hit a trough on October 9th the S&P 500 sectors that IFI favored nine months ago (at the end of September 20021) have outperformed those sectors that we disfavored -- by 21.2% points using a simple average and by 10.6% points using a weighted average (based on our advised weightings in late-September). ...Annualizing this nine-month performance, we find that the expected out-performers beat the expected under- performers by 14.1% points. Our sector forecasts have been very profitable for those investors who've fully deployed them.
June 30 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
June 24 Investor Alert Fed Rate Cuts, the Gold Price and U.S. Equity Performance
According to one account of the Federal Reserve meetings taking place today and tomorrow, Fed officials are likely to cut the overnight Fed Funds rate (currently 1.25%) because they are 'impatient' to see an economic recovery in the U.S.1 In our view, using market-price estimates, Fed officials will cut rates, but that stuff about 'impatience' is pure hogwash -- as is the widespread claim that Fed rate cuts are quickly bullish for equities. In fact, rate cuts tend to be bullish only after a long lag -- and only after the Fed makes clear that it's finished with rate-cutting. Rate cuts are bearish while they're being enacted (and promised).
June 13 Investment Focus Plunging T-Bond Yields: Bullish or Bearish for U.S. Equities?
The U.S. T-Bond yield has plunged by nearly 175 basis points in the past year (to 3.20%) -- the fourth-largest (annual) drop since 1920. Is that bullish or bearish for U.S. equities?
June 9 InterMarket Forecaster The Policy Mix Index
A further improvement in the U.S. 'policy mix' is apparent -- and that should provide a reasonably bullish context for U.S. equity performance over the coming few quarters.
May 30 InterMarket Forecaster Why Do Equities Cool When the Weather Gets Hot?
As investors look toward the summer months, those aware of seasonal variations in equity performance may recall the old Wall Street adage: 'Sell in May and go away.'
May 23 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
May 12 Investment Focus Sector and Industry BETAs as Signals of Relative Equity Performance
In corporate finance, BETA is a historical measure of a stock's variability relative to the variability seen in some broader index (like the S&P 500). If the broad market is likely to rise by any material degree, one can reasonably expect high-BETA stocks to rise by even more (i.e., they'll be likely out-performers). Similarly, such stocks are likely to decline by more than the entire market declines (they'll be likely under-performers) -- when the market declines materially.
May 7 Investor Alert What Does a Weak Jobs Recovery Portend for U.S. Stocks?
What signal, if any, might a U.S. equity investor obtain by observing a weak, post- recession recovery in U.S. employment? The answer is: a less bullish signal than if job growth has been robust. Indeed, job growth has not been robust in the U.S. since the last recession ended in December 2001. Nor has output grown very quickly -- at least not when compared to eight other recoveries in the U.S. since the 1950s.
April 30 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
April 21 The Capitalist Advisor Iraq: One Battle in a Wider War
Many commentators have remarked recently that the U.S. stock market has not rebounded by as much as they expected, especially given the recent, rapid U.S. military success in Iraq. Others fear the market will be stuck in a long-term trading range...
April 9 Investment Focus Exchange-Traded Funds: Asset Allocation Made Easy
What factor most explains an investor's performance in any particular year -- or over many years, for that matter? Extensive market research has demonstrated that nearly 95% of performance is attributable to one's initial asset allocation. The balance is due to the timing of investments and the selection of specific securities. While most investors consider only the typical, tri-partite allocation (stocks, bonds and bills), we've shown that commodities de- serve as much attention -- as a separate class that of- ten outperforms stocks, bonds and bills. S&P 500) or its sub-indexes, especially after deducting their (often exorbitant) management expenses.
April 3 Investor Alert Gold: The Objective War Correspondent
Now, more than ever, equity investors should pay attention to the message being delivered by gold. Let the neophytes get their 'news' from biased reporters like Peter Arnett and Geraldo Rivera -- or from the media sheep who nip at the heels of U.S. military leaders in daily briefings at Central Command in Qatar. And let the Keynesians persist in dismissing gold as a 'barbaric relic.' It's no such thing -- and in recent weeks it's been predicting a swift and decisive U.S. defeat of the real barbaric relic, a.k.a. Saddam Hussein.
March 31 The Capitalist Advisor From Containment to Pre-Emption: A New, Pro-Capitalist Defense Policy
The U.S. war against the terrorist regime in Iraq is a proper and welcome action. In our view it should have occurred long ago. But on the bright side, this war could mark the beginning of a new, pro-capitalist (and bullish) U.S. foreign policy.
March 28 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
March 14 Investment Focus CAPEX, the 'Excess Capacity' Myth and Sector Performance
 Yesterday's sharp price action gave investors just a small taste of what's to come if the U.S. finally wages war quickly and effectively. Equity prices and the dollar shot upward, gold and oil prices plunged and the T-Bond yield increased (allowing a narrowing in corporate spreads). Market commentators continue to mislead investors by claiming that such equity rallies (and commodity-price declines) reflect a lesser chance of war. In fact they reflect a great chance of war. The news that most affected markets yesterday was testimony by Colin Powell that the U.S. would likely go to war even if it does not getting backing from the U.N.
March 7 Investor Alert Snow "Isn't Troubled"-- So Markets Are
As we predicted, new U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow has presided, without objection, over a weak dollar. He hasn't said explicitly that he favors a weak dollar. But his actions speak louder than his words; he's done nothing to stem the dollar's decline.
February 28 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
February 24 Invester Alert Inflation, Inflation Everywhere -- But Not a Jot, They Think
It is somewhat bizarre that economists, Fed officials and commentators in the financial media have been worrying about 'deflation' (a rise in the purchasing power of a currency) in recent years and months. Not only is deflation non-existent -- but if it did exist it would be bullish for equity performance.
February 17 The Capitalist Advisor Bush is All Hat and No Horse
Investors should be careful not to be fooled by the conventional commentary about war and the markets. Every week that U.S. stock prices and the U.S. dollar decline, while oil and gold prices rise, commentators attribute the pattern to 'war.' Every time stocks and the dollar rise, while oil and gold prices decline, the moves are attributed to a lessened chance of war. If that were true an investor in U.S. stocks should be bearish (and an investor in commodities should be bullish) if there is war. Equally, if there is no war, one should be bullish on stocks and bearish on commodities. But it isn't true. Indeed, the facts support exactly the opposite conclusion. which itself harbors terrorist regimes as 'voting' members who oppose U.S. self-defense.
February 7 Investment Focus Corporate Leverage, Credit Spreads and Bond Yields
Fixed income investors who understand the nature of corporate credit spreads are in a far better position to outperform peers compared to those who don't. Credit spreads--measured as the differences between yields on corporate bonds and yields on Treasury bonds -- exhibit both a cyclical and a secular character.
January 31   Dividend Taxes, Capital Taxes and Investment Returns
Historically, lower tax rates in the U.S. have been associated with above-average returns on U.S. stocks and bonds, while higher tax rates have accompanied below-average returns on each asset class. Thus there is an undeniably bullish aspect to the Bush Administration's recent proposal to abolish the federal tax on dividend in- come and to accelerate scheduled reductions in marginal tax rates on other personal income. But the extent to which these proposals are watered down by Congress or delayed in implementation the near-term effect will be bearish.
January 23   Outlook 2003
This outlook provides investors with market-based forecasts of more than 100 separate variables, 80% of which represent investable assets. Thus the forecasts provide practical guidance to portfolio managers. IFI covers currencies, commodities, stocks, bonds and bills--as well as sector and 'style' bets. Finally, we contrast our forecasts of the S&P 500 price index, S&P 500 operating profits, the price-earnings multiple and the 10-year T-Bond yield with those of leading strategists at Wall Street brokerage firms
January 8 InterMarket Forecaster Informative Anomalies
When, in the 131-year history of S&P indexes before 2002, did the price index 1) decline two straight years, 2) decline by more in the second year than the first and 3) decline while profits increased?
January 1   Track Record 2002

2002		    
December 31 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
December 20 Investor Alert War, Gold Research, and Jobs
A number of recent developments relating to the 'war,' the gold price, a Wall Street research 'settlement' and the 'jobless recovery' are worth noting and explaining -- especially as they are influencing (and will influence) U.S. stocks.
December 10 Investor Alert The Snow Job at Treasury
We were amused to find that market commentators and the media were nearly breathless last weekend in describing the alleged 'shake-up' in President Bush's economic policy team. On December 6th the President fired Paul O'Neil (Secretary of the Treasury) and Larry Lindsey (head of the National Economic Council). Presumably, the President was un-happy with the pair (as he should have been) especially the more important of the two, Mr. O'Neill. Why, then, did Bush bother, yesterday, to nominate John Snow, a near-clone of O'Neill?
December 6 Investment Focus Inflation, Deflation, and Investment Returns
 Equity markets in the U.S. and Japan have suffered in recent years from inflation - not from deflation," as everyone claims. That's why commodities have outperformed stocks in the past three years. Such out-performance is not uncommon: since 1970 in the U.S. commodities have out-performed stocks more than half the time. History shows that inflation is bearish for stocks, while deflation is bullish. To ensure a new bull market in equities, U.S. and Japanese officials must deflate their currencies - or, at the very least, inflate them at a far-lesser rate than they have been since 2000. Until and unless they do so, equities will remain under pressure.
November 30 Capitalist Advisor Free Speech and the Integrity of Research
Investors are best-served by a free flow of information -- not only information of the highest-quality, but information that's analyzed objectively. Unless forecasts are based on sound information and objective methods, they are useless (when not dangerous) to a portfolio manager. Viewing the state of investment information, research and forecasting today, one finds that each is sorely lacking both in quality and objectivity.
November 27 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
November 12 Capitalist Advisor The Policy Mix Index: A Slight Improvement
 IFI's measure of the U.S. 'policy mix' since we introduced our inaugural reading last April. The index now stands at 43.5, up from 41.8 in April. This reading lies roughly in-between a 'mildly bullish' and 'bullish' signal, with a slight-leaning toward 'bullish.' The policy mix index primarily signals the likely performance of U.S. equities in the coming year.
November 6 Investment Focus The Almighty Consumer is Depressed--and That's Bullish
According to the Conference Board, which has published a "consumer confidence" index since 1967, American consumers were more depressed in October than at any time since November 1993. The index fell to 79.4 in October, down from 93.7 in September and off 28.3% from a recent peak of 110.7 in March.1 That was the largest seven- month decline since 1970. It all sounds pretty grim. In fact, most economists and market commentators -- after repeating the age-old myth that "consumers represent two-thirds of the economy" -- interpret the latest reading as a bearish signal for stocks and the economy.
October 31 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
October 18 Capitalist Advisor The Injustice of Insider-Trading Rules
Insider-trading rules punish innocent and productive behavior -- and destroy share- holder wealth. The case against ImClone's Sam Waksal is only the most recent historical example of this. Nearly $5 billion of ImClone's market value (or 90% of its peak) has been destroyed by U.S. regulators: by the fraudulent acts of both SEC and FDA officials. Investors must consider regulatory risk. This report examines the ImClone-Waksal case -- as well as the broader issue of insider trading rules and why they undermine the stock market.
October 14 Capitalist Advisor Elections Futures Market Points to Status Quo in U.S. Congress
When it comes to forecasting election outcomes, market prices are more informative and reliable than public opinion polls -- just as market prices offer better fore- casts of investment outcomes, com- pared to the widespread use of in-accurate and backward-looking economic-accounting data (or 'sentiment' measures). When people put their money where their mouths are, they tend to be more focused, rational and candid.
October 7 Investor Alert A 'Spring-Loaded' Stock Market
 Everyone is familiar with the fake canister of peanuts used as a practical joke on the unsuspecting: remove the lid and out pops toy 'snakes' made of coils wrapped in cloth. The victim of the joke is momentarily startled by what springs out and shoots across the room -- or in his face. Investors may well experience a similar surprise some time in the coming months -- a surprise involving not snakes, but stock prices.
September 30 Investor Alert A 'Template' for Persecuting Wall Street
Government officials in the U.S.— at the SEC and the Attorney General's Office of the State of New York — are compelling brokerage firms to pay huge fines, artificially separate their internal departments, fire investment bankers, impose censorship on analysts, appoint lawyers instead of bankers as their CEOs, and curb the firms' favorable treatment of their best clients. This unjust and wealth- destroying persecution was initiated against Merrill Lynch last spring but it continues currently against Salomon Smith Barney (part of Citigroup) and is likely to be extended to at least a half-dozen other brokerage firms before the year is out.
September 27 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
September 17 Investment Alert Appeasement Persists -- and Destroys Wealth
A year ago --in the wake of terrorist attacks on America -- we showed how they were the result of decades of U.S. appeasement of Arabic-Islamic barbarism. We warned of bearish market consequences as a result of U.S. officials showing signs -- even after September 11th -- of continued appeasement.3 That is precisely what we've seen over the past year.
September 10 Capitalist Advisor Greenspan's Gremlins
The three most important factors for U.S. equity investors to have known in recent years--setting aside any possible foreknowledge of the terrorist attacks of a year ago--were 1) changes in the dollar price of gold, 2) the position of the Treasury yield curve and 3) the Federal Reserve's view of so- called 'bubbles.'
August 30 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
August 28 Investment Focus The Mythical Housing 'Bubble'
August 20 Investment Alert
 		CEOs Sign Away Their Lives
August 5 Capitalist Advisor Guess What's Wrong with Hong Kong?
Most Asian stocks have dramatically outperformed the U.S. so far this year (and most of the past year). Hong Kong has been an exception--as it has for most of the past five years. Not coincidentally, it was five years ago that the world's largest communist dictatorship (China) took over the only nation in the world that remotely approximated laissez-faire capitalism (Hong Kong). At the time most economists and market commentators believed China's officials would abide by their promise of "one country, two systems"--and that China wouldn't dare "kill the goose that laid the golden eggs."
July 29 Capitalist Advisor What the World Needs Now Is Greed— More Greed
A Secretary Paul O'Neill, SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, the U.S. Congress (especially the Republicans), parrot-like media pundits and even 'the man on the street' (who usually knows better than all of the above) -- believes the U.S. stock market has lost $8 trillion (or 46%) from its peak value in March 2000 (or even the $3.5 trillion that's been lost in the past year) due to 'corporate greed' and 'fraud.' They also believe that greed engenders fraud.
July 24 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
July 12 Capitalist Advisor

The War on Business Intensifies
Instead of conducting a 'War on Terrorism,' the U.S. government-- to the applause of most economists, journalists and (yes) CEOs--is conducting a War on Business.
July 4 Capitalist Advisor Put The "Independence" Back In Independence Day--The Forgotten Meaning Of America
June 30 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
June 28 Capitalist Advisor The Government Takeover of Accounting
Should government interventions intensify -- as is now likely -- investors should expect the quality of accounting to deteriorate still further.
June 19 Capitalist Advisor The Wealth-Transfer Tax Lives
At 55%, the top U.S. estate tax--better called a wealth-transfer tax--is the third-highest in the world
June 7 Investor Alert Mr. Market Is Not Pleased
 Mr. Market is not pleased--especially with the U.S. policy mix. Instead of killing terrorists and vanquishing the governments of terror-sponsoring nations, U.S. officials are trying to build a nation-wide 'bunker' that imposes more regulations and costs on business! The U.S. is in the middle of what is, effectively, World War III. It's the Muslim World versus the Civilized World (what's left of it). Yet U.S. officials, instead of fighting known enemies, are effectively appeasing them and surrendering to them. At the same time, an unjust domestic war is being waged in Washington against innocent businesses and shareholders.
May 31 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
May 28 Capitalist Advisor Capital on Strike, Part II
May 21 Capitalist Advisor Capital on Strike
Investors should realize that what's commonly referred to as "capital flight" is actually capital going on strike. Another form of it can be seen in the history of 'brain drains'--usually of the most-intelligent entrepreneurs, engineers, doctors and scientists--away from oppressive regimes toward less oppressive or liberalized ones.
May 7 Investment Focus Is It May Day For the Dollar?
The universal signal of distress for aircraft pilots when their plane is going down is "May Day." Fittingly, the U.S. dollar's decline in recent months accelerated after May Day last week -- the same day U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, in testimony before Congress, effectively abdicated responsibility for the value of the dollar.
April 30 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
April 24 Capitalist Advisor Introducing the 'Policy Mix Index'
In this report we introduce a 'Policy Mix Index' (PMI) to help investors assess overall government policy and its likely impact on equity returns, profits and the economy.
April 15 Investment Focus Is An Oil Price Spike Necessarily Bearish?
 The oil price cannot be viewed in isolation if investors wish to avoid misleading conclusions (and inaccurate forecasts of portfolio performance).
April 8 Investor Alert Are There Still "Reasons to Be Bullish"—A Retrospective
March 29 InterMarket Forecaster The InterMarket Forecaster
March 22 Investor Alert Return of the Market Saboteurs
March 19 Investment Focus Convertibles with the Top- Down
March 15 Capitalist Advisor Forgotten Heroes of 9/11
March 12 Capitalist Advisor Protectionism and the Dollar
February 28 InterMarket Forecaster InterMarket Forecaster
February 25 Capitalist Advisor Misplaced Investor Wrath
February 13 Investor Alert What Are the Chances of a Bear Market "Three-peat?"
February 6 Capitalist Advisor A Tale of Two Bankruptcies: Enron and Argentina
January 30 Capitalist Advisor To Get Money Out of Politics, Get Politics Out of Money-Making
January 29 InterMarket Forecaster InterMarket Forecaster
January 23   Outlook 2002
January 14   Track Record 2001
January 8 Investor Alert "Fed Activism, the Yield Curve and the U.S. Business Cycle"
January 4 Capitalist Advisor "Is "Europhoria" Warranted?"

2001		    
December 28 InterMarket Forecaster
December 21 Capitalist Advisor "Why Christmas Should Be More Commercial"
December 11 Investor Alert "Argentina's Collapse in the Context of Previous Emerging Market Disasters"
December 4 Investor Alert "DJIA-NASDAQ Ratio as Forecaster of Relative Performance"
November 27 InterMarket Forecaster
November 21 Capitalist Advisor "Thanksgiving: Producer's Holiday"
November 15 Capitalist Advisor "Messages From Sector Rotation"
November 7 Investor Alert "U.S. Market Performance Surrounding Recession"
October 31 InterMarket Forecaster
October 25 Investor Alert "The Recent Market Rebound - Is It Sustainable?"
October 17 Capitalist Advisor "The Ignoble Nobels"
October 5 Investor Alert "Those Alleged Stimulus Measures"
September 30 InterMarket Forecaster
September 26 Investor Alert "U.S. Market Performance Surrounding War"
September 22 Capitalist Advisor "U.S. Officials Fiddle While America Burns"
September 19 Investor Alert "All Bets Are Off: Here's What Investors Should Do Now"
September 17 Capitalist Advisor "Terrorism and Its Appeasement"
September 7 Investor Alert "A Victory for Microsoft - and the Market"
August 24 InterMarket Forecaster
August 21 Investor Alert "The Waiting Game"
August 15 Capitalist Advisor "The Crime of '71: A Retrospective"
August 10 Investor Alert "The U.S. Dollar: Able Forecaster of Financial Returns"
July 31 InterMarket Forecaster
July 26 Capitalist Advisor "Cutting Through the Globaloney in Genoa"
July 20 Investor Alert "Canada: Is There A Case For Northern Exposure?"
July 10 Investor Alert "Trustbusting: The Risk That Won't Recede"
June 31  InterMarket Forecaster
June 28 Investor Alert "Argentina's Blind Date With an Ugly Currency"
June 18 Investor Alert "GE and the EC's Trustbusters"
June 11 Capitalist Advisor "The GOP's Senate Loss: Bearish, Neutral or Bullish?"
May 31 InterMarket Forecaster
May 23 Investor Alert
May 15 Investor Alert "Capital Gains Tax and Equity Returns"
May 7 Capitalist Advisor "Greenspan's 'Reserve Armies' - and Your Portfolio"
April 30 InterMarket Forecaster "Golden Rules to Profit By"
April 25 Investor Alert "Argentina: Flirting With Disaster"
April 20 Investor Alert "Substantial Fed Rate Cuts Hardly A Surprise"
April 6 Investor Alert "Reasons to be Bullish Today: A Near Mirror Image of Reasons to be Bearish a Year Ago"
March 30 InterMarket Forecaster
March 23 Investor Alert "Japan Doesn't Need More Yen, It Needs a More Valuable Yen."
March 16 Investor Alert "Better Policy Deferred is Not What Markets Prefer"
February 28 InterMarket Forecaster
February 23 Investor Alert "Stagflation" Is Last Year's News
February 14 Capitalist Advisor "The Bush Tax Cuts: Bigger - and Sooner - Would Be Better."
January 30 InterMarket Forecaster
January 4 Investor Alert "Fed Does the Right Thing - And Bullishness is Warranted"

2000		    
December 20 InterMarket Forecaster  
December 14  Investor Alert "The NASDAQ Plunge in Historical Contest"
December 8 Capitalist Advisor "Transition 2000: The GOP Mandate and the Bush Cabinet"
November 22 InterMarket Forecaster  
November 13 Investor Alert "Portfolios are Being Gored - But Market Resilience Reflects Improving Fundamentals"
November 9  Investor Alert "Investing Amidst Mob Rule"
November 4  Capitalist Advisor "Campaign 2000: It Looks Like a GOP Sweep  - and That's Bullish"
October 20  InterMarket Forecaster  
October 19  Capitalist Advisor "Campaign 2000: Bush Makes a Comeback - But Still Trails in Futures Markets"
October 16  Investor Alert "It's a Bloody Good Time to Be Bullish"
October 10  Investor Alert "Gold - Not Debt - Forecasts Bond Yields"
October 5  The Capitalist Advisor "Campaign 2000: Wait - It Gets Worse"
October 2  Investor Alert "Euro-Trash"
September 25 InterMarket Forecaster  
September 8  Capitalist Advisor "Bush's Risky Campaign Scheme"
August 21  Investor Alert "What Will the Fed Do After Tomorrow?"
August 14  Capitalist Advisor "'Retiring' Social Security: Investment Implications of Proposed Reforms - and Beyond"
August 7  Capitalist Advisor "How Gore Might Bushwhack the GOP"
July 21 Capitalist Advisor "The Injustice of Antitrust"
July 10 Investor Alert "Fed Policy, Yield Spreads and Bond Returns"
June 30 Investor Alert "Fed Wrecking Crew Takes a Coffee Break"
June 15 Capitalist Advisor "The Rational Basis of Price-Earnings Multiples"
May 29 Investor Alert "When Will the NASDAQ Hit a Real Bottom?" 
May 10 Capitalist Advisor "Fed Rate Hikes Would Only Further Boost Inflation"
May 1 Investor Alert "When Earnings Season Becomes Open Season"
April 17 Capitalist Advisor "The Anti-Wealth Effect"
April 4 Investor Alert "Antitrust: Landmarks and Landmines"
March 29 Investor Alert "Oil Headed for $20/bbl Regardless of OPEC"
March 21 Investor Alert "The Cancer Threatening Biotech Stocks"
February 22 Capitalist Advisor "Why Greenspan Trashes the Markets"
February 4 Investor Alert "How Long Can This Keep Going On?"


Books and Tapes

The following web-sites provide access to books and tapes on economics, investments and forecasting by IFI's Chief Market Strategist, Richard M. Salsman.

Upon accessing the following sites, search by "Richard Salsman."